Tweener looks at Day 4 of the Mens Singles at Wimbledon and he likes Dennis Novikov to beat Joao Sousa in what promises to be a long match.
Dennis Novikov v Joao Sousa
**This match may not be played until Friday depending on the weather**
I remember watching Novikov take a set off Benneteau in US Open in 2012 and thought what power and talent. His career has not progressed as promised, but he is here making up for some lost time now even though he is still only 22.
I have tipped up over games as the main bet since I believe Novikov will win at least a set here given his game, I have also tipped up to win the win 1st set not because Novikov is a tremendous starter ( In fact Novikov has lost the 1st set in his last 3 matches at Wimbledon), but I have got Sousa as a player who loses the 1st set more often than he should.
This match will be decided from the baseline. Sousa makes the most of his talent, he is a solid baseliner who gives it the best he can at every match. However he will not be the player who decides the points since Novikov forehand will be the main deciding factor in this match.
If Novikov makes enough balls, he will overpower Sousa. Yet, Sousa is not ranked 31 with his limited game for no reason, his match play skills are very good and he can turn this match into a war hence the overs bet.
The main potential downside for these bets is if Novikov has an "off day", as these aggressive type of players, if their game is "off" they don’t generally have a backup plan since their defence isn’t normally good enough to keep them in the match and they can go down in a sea of errors.
2 points Over Total 38.5 games at 5/6 with SportingBet
1 point Novikov win 1st set at 6/4 with Betway
1 point Novikov win match at 9/5 with Betfair Sports