Wimbledon ante post – Vandeweghe & Thiem overpriced

Shane Lambert looks at the Wimbledon ante post markets and he thinks there is good value with Coco Vandeweghe and Dominic Thiem.

It was about a week ago when I took a look at the Wimbledon market with opinions on numerous players considered to be among the favourites for the title at the All England Club in July. One player that I felt offered good odds was Simona Halep, priced at 25/1 with Stan James. However, Halep recently pulled out of the Aegon Classic with a left-achilles injury and that should be curbing bets on her. Even if the injury is minor, as it appears to be, her Wimbledon warm-up has nonetheless been negatively affected.

But one player who has really come on strong on the women's tour is American CoCo Vandeweghe. She won outright last week in the Netherlands and had every excuse in the world to pull out of this week's event in Birmingham. However, instead of doing that Vandeweghe stayed in the draw and defeated the tournament's top seed, Agnieszka Radwanska, in the opening round.

The title and the defeat of Radwanska both attest to Vandeweghe's form, her drive at the moment, and her conditioning. In my view the American should be considered more of a favourite to win Wimbledon this season than many players currently priced shorter than her, namely Belinda Bencic, Karolina Pliskova, Simona Halep, Angelique Kerber, and Madison Keys. I feel that way even if Vandeweghe should stumble or withdraw ahead of the final in Birmingham this week.

She is still out at 66s with bet365, odds that I think under-rate her Wimbledon chances. A quarterfinalist from last year, her confidence has to be sky high at the moment and her play of late has earned her a high enough ranking for a seed this season, something that will help her with early-round matches.

When it comes to players like Vandeweghe, that seem to be peaking but still haven't done anything enormous, it might be hard to commit a large bet. Parlays are a good way to get something interesting on players like this without a betting bust being bankroll draining. One candidate player that I think Vandeweghe at 66/1 should be parlayed with is Dominic Thiem, a player who is 50/1 to win Wimbledon despite a grass-court title last week as well.

An each-way parlay with Vandeweghe and Thiem could get very interesting at the All England Club. With some mild draw luck, I think Vandeweghe is a quarterfinalist again while Thiem won't need draw luck as his ranking will be high enough to avoid high seeds until that round. The two players parlayed offers 3416 to 1 on the win-outright component and 883/1 on the place component. In my opinion that looks like small bets and big odds leading to big interest in a couple of weeks here.

Recommendation:

1 point each way Coco Vandeweghe at 66s each way with Marathon Bet

1 point each way Dominic Thiem at 50s with Betfred, Paddy Power and Sporting Bet


 

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