Wimbledon ante post – Serena creates value on others

Shane Lambert looks ahead to Wimbledon and the very short price on Serena Williams means there are a number of players including Muguruza that appeal at the prices.

Serena Williams won six matches at the recently completed French Open. However, in the late rounds she really wasn't her old self. Even in winning against Yulia Putintseva and Kiki Bertens, the World No. 1 failed to cover game handicaps. Heading into Wimbledon, I'm looking for the American to have a bad tournament (i.e. not winning it) and I loathe her odds of 7/4 with BetVictor.

All of the following players still in their prime have clear grass-court expertise based on historical results at Wimbledon:

Garbine Muguruza: 2015 Wimbledon final

Petra Kvitova: 2-time Wimbledon champion

Victoria Azarenka: 2-time Wimbledon semi-finalist

Angelique Kerber: 1-time Wimbledon semi-finalist + a quarterfinal appearance

Simona Halep: 1-time Wimbledon semi-finalist

Agnieszka Radwanska: 1-time Wimbledon runner-up

Eugenie Bouchard: 1-time Wimbledon runner-up

Tsvetana Pironkova: 1-time semi-finalist + a quarterfinal appearance

When it comes to eliminating some candidates for betting purposes then Kvitova can go (bad form), Azarenka can go (bad form and recent injuries), Kerber can go (bad form), and Bouchard can go (bad form). That leaves Muguruza, Halep, Radwanska, and Pironkova to choose from.

I loved Muguruza at 9/1 immediately after winning the French Open, odds that were available with both Stan James and Betway. They've since shortened but I still feel as though she's a 7/2 player in terms of true odds for Wimbledon. She has shortened down to 6/1 now with numerous firms, including Betway, and I still think there's value there.

Halep is a little more difficult of a read at this point. But I really think the conditions bit her and Radwanska badly in the fourth round of the French, opinions the two players seemed to share. At 25/1 and 33/1 respectively with Stan James, there appears to be some value for two players that will be both high seeds and tough outs.

Pironkova's odds are self-selling as she's out at 100s with bet365. She was at 250s just a week ago with Paddy Power so her play in Roland Garros has almost put her back on the radar.

For players not on the list above, I think both Madison Keys and Belinda Bencic are potential young guns to burst on the scene at the All England Club this season. But Keys was a disappointment in Roland Garros and Bencic is coming back from injury. Really long odds on the two aren't available and they are players to shave off in order to keep a betting list short.

Williams looks like she should be out at 9/2 to me. With an 0-3 record in her last three majors, she's a very tough sell at 7/4. Anyone that's willing to go with odds in that ballpark are better off with Novak Djokovic in the men's draw. He's 4/5 with Stan James and he has nothing but titles in majors for the last year.

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Recommendations

2.5 points win on Muguruza at 6/1 with Betway

1.5 points win on Halep at 25/1 with Stan James each way

1.5 points win on Radwanska at 33/1 with Stan James each way

0.5 points win on Pironkova at 100/1 with bet365 each way

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