Roy The Boy Weekly Blog which reluctantly looks at Wimbledon and has bets in the World Matchplay Darts, looks back at the Baku Grand Prix and has season F1 bet and advises backing the Ladies to win Big Brother.
Anything but Tennis
With Wimbledon about to start this is traditionally my worst few weeks of the year. Nothing winds me up more than a bunch of toffs wearing boater hats and shouting things like “C’mon Andy” and “Go on Greg” neither of which (Murray or Rusedski) are English or want to be British. But a flag of convenience is a flag to hide behind.
Anyway, it is going to be wallpaper BBC TV tennis coverage for a good fortnight while news stations, who normally pay no attention to king-sized ping-pong, will be treating this pretentious event like the World Cup, Queens Birthday and the discovery of life on Mars all rolled into one.
I’ll be laying Murray all the way, not because I know the first thing about the game, simply because I find him very disagreeable and he is likely to be over-bet by Scottish punters.
On a more serious note I’m also planning on taking on Michael van Gerwen in the World Matchplay which starts on July 16.
Currently the world’s finest darts players are on the other side of globe where Gary Anderson won last week’s Auckland Darts Masters. The next event, scheduled for this weekend, is in Shanghai.
MVG will be desperate for a result here as he was beaten 10-6 by James Wade in Auckland during the quarter finals. Prior to that he was turned over in the Betway World Cup of Darts final by Adrian Lewis and then eliminated, at the quarter final stage, from the Austrian Darts Open (4-6 to Kyle Anderson).
The World Matchplay is a little more than three weeks away and if he does not show improved form this weekend there is surely little chance of him making the necessary adjustments to his game within a fortnight to win the Blackpool major.
Lay him at 5/4 if you can. If not back Taylor (6/1 at Power’s), Anderson (7/1 Bet365) and Lewis (16/1 Sportingbet). Yes that leaves out the classy Dave Chisnall and Peter Wright but until they win a major competition how can you back them?
SkyBet’s F1 Mistake
I can honestly say I’ve never been more confident and subsequently disappointed about a result than I was with the Baku Grand Prix. I was on the under 18.5 and particularly the under 16.5 finishers for lumps plus I’d backed Max Verstappen to DNF and one of the Force India cars to get the fastest lap.
When the line on under 17.5 finishers went in to 4/11 I was supremely confident but, remarkably the race was incident free (a Safety Car was 1/8 at the off!). And so I’ll never get my head around this result. But I’ll take solace in the fact odds compilers will probably get this one wrong again in 2017 with the results not painting an accurate picture of what we should expect next time around.
The Baku race saw Nico Rosberg extend his championship lead over Lewis Hamilton again. Hamilton is now top-priced 4/5 (Coral) for the title while Rosberg can be backed at 11/8 (with William Hill).
The prices are doubtlessly in-line with the probability but that means Sky Bet are way out of line with one of their markets. In a match-bet scenario they are making Rosberg 7/4 to finish ahead of Hamilton at the end of the season. It’s a massive faux-pas and one that should be punished.
12/5 the Ladies in Big Brother
Big Brother is well underway and for once I’m not watching it. Nevertheless the betting markets are well worth a look through and at 12/5 Ladbrokes are standout about a female winning this show for the third consecutive year.
With 2/5 available about a male winner this is a near 100% book and with the show notorious for its betting volatility I think the outsider should be backed with a view to trading out the bet with a profit in time to come.
This Week’s Best Bets
Lay Michael van Gerwen to win World Matchplay Darts at around 2.25 with Betfair
Rosberg to beat Hamilton - F1 season match bet at 7/4 with SkyBet
Female Winner of Big Brother at 12/5 with Ladbrokes