Weekly Blog – US Politics & Horse Racing

Roy The Boy’s weekly blog looks at Hillary Clinton’s declining popularity and the challenges facing American Pharoah in Belmont.

Long-Term Savings Scheme

There’s great news coming out of America. Hillary Clinton is now officially disliked by more people than like her. The latest opinion polls have her popularity rating at 45 per cent, which is down from 47 per cent in March and 54 per cent last June.

All being well it will reach a minus figure by the turn of the year as I cannot think of a worse person to put in charge of 1,000 overseas military bases with enough firepower to annihilate the universe.

To quote Motherjones.com “With the launch of a new US-led war in Iraq and Syria against the Islamic State (IS), the United States has engaged in aggressive military action in at least 13 countries in the Greater Middle East since 1980. In that time, every American president has invaded, occupied, bombed, or gone to war in at least one country in the region.”

Given those facts, Hillary is not going to want to be remembered as the odd one out plus she has already expressed an interest in alienating and surrounding China.

I must confess that I’m equally as interested in my long-term savings plan which is the opposition of Mrs Clinton for the November 2016 Presidential election at even money.

Sloppy Stuff

My punting has been horrible lately. If I were a surgeon I’d be in hallways telling family members “the operation has been a complete success but your loved one has died!

Take the Preakness in America. Right on cue the heavens opened and the race was run in a quagmire. There’s no better conditions to lay an odds-on shot but, of course, American Pharoah ran out a convincing winner and is now the latest in a long line of triple crown chasers to head to the final leg in Belmont with a real chance of becoming the first horse to win all three legs since Affirmed in 1978.

Every stat imaginable will be against him though, as outlined below:

  • Only 11 horses have completed the Triple Crown since 1919 (none since the 1970s).
  • Since 1944, 20 horses have won the Kentucky Derby and Preakness but failed in the final leg Belmont.
  • 13 of the 20 failed attempts resulted in the horse in question still finishing second or third.
  • In the past 25 years, the treble has been foiled on the final leg nine times. That includes War Emblem (2002), Funny Cide (2003), Smarty Jones (2004), Big Brown (2008), California Chrome (2014).
  • In 2012, I’ll Have Another won the Derby and Preakness but did not contest the Belmont.
  • The last nine favourites have been beaten in this race. Of the last 30 races, the favourite has prevailed only six times.
  • Since 1979 (Spectacular Bird, beaten at 1/5) there have been eight odds-on favourites in this race. All have lost.

It’s also worth noting the draw plays a vital role in the race. Since 1905, Belmont winners have come from the following stalls:

Stall            # Wins                                                                                                                                                      1                      23

2                      11

3                      15

4                      10

5                      14

6                      7

7                      13

8                      6

9                      4

10                     2

11                     2

12                     1