Weekly Blog – Tapestry & Coe look good bets

Roy The Boy's weekly blog looks at the Eurovision, Big Brother, Britain's Got Talent, Derby weekend at Epsom, the World Series of Poker and the IAAF presidential race between Coe and Bubka.

TV Times

Did you get the cake betting on the Eurovision Song Contest in-running?   I hope so.  The Russian act went 1.6 in-running on Betfair as they headed the scoreboard during the live vote declarations.

However, as repeatedly highlighted here, organisers are fully aware of who is the winner from the moment voting closes and they simply choose to announce votes in a way which will disguise the outcome, to create an exciting spectacle, for as long as possible.

Once you accept this, Eurovision really is a great betting medium with lots of liquidity meaning it is relatively easy to trade.

Big Piss Take

One TV event which has left me perplexed is Big Brother.  2015 producers have made a complete mockery of what has always been a gameshow, taking it on themselves to remove four contestants and leave in four others (who had been nominated to be in an eviction vote).

Yes they eliminated the dullest people and left in the confrontational and entertaining ones but, as history books show, invariably it has been the most inoffensive contestants that have prevailed.

For now the event needs to be left well alone as, not only have the goalposts been moved, it’s not even clear where those goalposts are.

Britain’s Got Votes

Britain’s Got Talent presenters Ant & Dec proudly declared there had been over two million votes for acts in one their semi-final shows.  I was staggered.

Would you believe the total votes for the 2014 Sports Personality of the Year, a one-off annual biggie which is massively hyped, amounted to just 620,932?

For the record Lewis Hamilton received 209,920 of those votes; runner-up Rory McIlroy 123,745 and third placed Jo Pavey, a little known athlete, was right behind him with 99,913.

Poker Orgy

The World Series of Poker is underway in Las Vegas. I’m always amazed by the lack of attention the ‘series’ attracts. At a time when the Greyhound Derby is enjoying massive acclaim due to its £250,000 first prize, the $200 million that will be awarded at this poker orgy barely gets a mention.

The bookmakers don’t get too excited by it either. The markets offered on the $10m to-the-winner main event are truly woeful.

Ladbrokes are going 19/20 about the colour of the last card dealt in the main event being red or black.  Absolutely no use to anyone unless they want to launder £100, which is the max bet they will probably accept on this market.

Skybet have six players priced-up at less than 100/1 for outright glory which is an insult to the intelligence of anyone who knows the variables involved with No Limit Texas Hold’em.

Heading that list at 66/1 is Phil Ivey, who it has been stated in court, used edge sorting to win at Baccarat.  I’d give him a bent deck and still give you 66/1 about him triumphing in this competition which will attract around 8,000 players.

Coronation Time

There’s no doubting the 2015 flat season is not going completely to plan for Aidan O’Brien.  Gleneagles’s potential Epsom Derby appearance is a classic example of a discarded jigsaw puzzle piece now being squeezed into a place it was not originally intended to.

He has a better fitting piece lined up for the Coronation Cup on the same weekend.  It’s a race the trainer has won seven times in the past ten years and this time around he relies on Yorkshire Oaks winner, Tapestry.

The four-year-old filly looks over-priced at 5/1 due to the trainer’s record in the race and the fact the connections of the French trained market principles, Dolniya and Flintshire, may decide to not clash, again, especially at this quirky racecourse.

Advised Bet:

1 point win Tapestry to win Coronation Cup at 6/1 with Coral and Bet365

bet365

Challenged Run-In

I’m long out of greyhound racing and so I take little more than a cautionary glance these days.  I see Graham Holland’s Ballydoyle Honey is top-priced 8/13 for the Sporting Press Irish Oaks.

24 dogs remain in the competition where the second favourite, Urban Gossip, is top-priced 8/1 (Paddy Power) and it is 20/1 bar.

I’ve not seen a dog run in the flesh in a long old time, but two recent lines of form on the favourite’s card very much concern me.  Amongst Ballydoyle Honey’s last four races there are two short-head verdicts and both have ‘challenged run-in’ written alongside them.  I have to question, is she 100 percent genuine?

Given the Oaks winner needs to race three more times (June 6th, 13th & 20th) and those questionable form-lines, I think I’d prefer to play Ladbrokes ‘red or black river card’ market in the WSOP, at a better price, instead!

Coe vs Bubka

The International Association of Athletics Federations (IAAF) will be voting for a new president on August 19th.  There are just two names on the ballot forms:  Sebastian Coe and Sergei Bubka.

Both are legendary athletes but Coe, as chairman of the 2012 London Olympics Organising Committee, brings so much more to the party than his Ukrainian counterpart.

Its noteworthy the pole-vaulter, who set 35 world records, has also registered as a candidate for one of the four vice presidents seats.  Coe is running for just the one job.

I’d say Bubka will need the safety net of two job applications and I cannot believe Betfair Sports’ 4/6 offering about Coe getting the job.

Advised Bet:

2 points win Seb Coe to win IAAF President Race at 4/6 with Betfair Sports

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