Roy The Boy Weekly Blog has bets on Lara Gut to win the Women's World Cup Skiing, Total Finishers in Malaysian Grand Prix and a draw in the Ryder Cup.
Injury free Lara can do it all
Betting markets on the Woman’s Overall World Cup Skiing are appearing all over the shop. Boylesports are the latest to open their book on the season long market. Like most they have Mikaela Shiffrin heading their list at 6/4. Lindsey Vonn is second in with the Irish firm at an industry best of 3/1.
There are two problems with this pair of American skiers, they both suffered injuries last year – Shiffrin for the first time in her career, Vonn for the umpteenth time – and they are also one dimensional.
On her day Vonn is the best Downhill and Super G skier we have ever seen and Shiffrin can claim the same in her specialised category of ‘Slalom’. But the Overall World Cup is made up of points from five categories of racing and a competitor who can score points in all five as opposed to win in one or two can often be the best option. 2013 overall champion, Tina Maze, is one such example.
Given the prices and information at our disposal, we believe it is best to look beyond all three of these candidates when betting on this season’s overall title because:
- Vonn has recently Tweeted she is not aiming for the overall title in 2016/17, Instead her “goal is wins”. That means she will not compete in events simply to collect some ‘also ran’ points. This will surely put a points tally good enough to claim the overall title out of reach.
- Shiffrin got injured last season. It proves she is mortal and, as history books show, one injury can and often does lead to a second injury and a third. Furthermore she will not compete in the Downhill races and is very ordinary in Super G.
- Maze missed all of last season and has called a press conference for October 20th, just days before the season’s curtain raiser. It’s believed she too will announce she is only going to compete in selected events.
These “if’s and but’s” steer us towards Anna Veith (Anna Fenninger up until her recent marriage) but she too is recovering from injury which may return at any time.
And so I have to opt for Lara Gut who can be backed at a whopping 7/1 at Betway. This is an amazing price about the 25-year-old athlete from Switzerland who competes in all disciplines (winning two Giant Slaloms, two Downhills, a Super G and a Super Combined last season) and she is the defending overall World Cup Champion.
Bookmakers Have Got Their Finishing Line Wrong in Malaysia
It’s the Malaysian Grand Prix this coming weekend. This is a race where the attrition rate is normally high. In 2004 16 of 20 starters finished, in 2005 13 of 20 starters completed and only 14 of 22 contestants saw the chequered flag in 2006. More recently the last two seasons have seen just 15 drivers finish the race.
However, what those stats don’t mention is the significant fact that this race has traditionally been staged as the second race of the season (in March) and early season races are renowned for producing DNF’s due to reliability issues.
To confirm that, just consider a Safety Car has been needed just three times in the past 12 years and two of those can be directly attributed to wet conditions. The vast majority of the non-finishers in years gone by were due to mechanical failure and not accident or incident.
Now, this season, following the lottery which is Monaco, finishing numbers have been exceptionally high, they read:
Canada 19 from 22 starters 3 DNF’s
Baku 18 from 22 starters 4 DNF’s
Austria 20 from 22 starters 2 DNF’s
British 17 from 22 starters 5 DNF’s
Hungary 21 from 22 Starters 1 DNF
Germany 20 from 22 starters 2 DNF’s
Belgium 17 from 22 starters 5 DNF’s
Italy 18 from 22 starters 4 DNF’s
Singapore 18 from 21 starters 3 DNF’s
I think you can see where I am heading with this – straight to Sportingbet to get some of their 9/10 about their 17.5+ race finishers!
Graeme Sharpe at William Hill’s was kind enough to help me with some stats recently. He also gave me an insight into some of the bigger political bets his company has taken in recent weeks.
These include a £60,000 bet on Corbyn to win the Labour leadership race at 1/16 and details of a punter in Cornwall who has backed Trump to win the US election 30+ times with a potential upside of £100,000.
Given such turnover there is little wonder political betting has become so popular with the mainstream traditional firms.
Draw the Cup
The Ryder Cup is obviously about to start. I know nothing about golf apart from it is a good walk ruined. However I do recall having a long chat with a very good golfing judge a few years back when he argued a very strong case for a draw scenario in the competition.
A flick through the stats show 1989 was the last time the event was tied albeit 1991, 1995, 1997, 1999, 2010 and 2012 were all 14½ -13½ results. Given those stats surely backing the draw at Paddy Power’s 12/1 with a view to trading the position in-running has to be the way to go.
Total finishers Malaysian GP: 17.5+ at 9/10 with Sportingbet
Lara Gut to win the Women’s Overall World Cup Skiing at 7/1 with Betway
Ryder Cup: - Draw at 12/1 with Paddy Power