Weekly Blog – Selby looks great bet and Saara not to win X Factor

Weekly Roy The Boy blog with bets on Mark Selby for the World Snooker and a lay of Saara Aalto in the X Factor Final.

Risk Free Bets? Place 11 Bets Before you get your Bonus?

I can never get my head around how some betting companies get away with advertising their new customer offers.

Let us be very clear, a headline such as “Have a £25 Risk Free Bet on us” is a lie.  These promotions return the stakes of a first time bet as a free bet should that opening wager lose.  But a free bet, unlike the losing cash bet you placed to receive it, does not have its stakes included in its returns (if it wins).  It cannot be refunded either.

If the offer was truly ‘risk free’ there would be no risk involved and you would not be risking your money.  In short, there is a lot of risk involved in a “£25 Risk Free Bet” and the ‘Advertising Standards Authority” need to take a good look at 1968’s ‘Trade Descriptions Act’.

And how about RedBet’s sign-up offer for truly extracting the urine?  They will give you, as a new customer, a 50% sign-up bonus of up to €50.  But read the small print hidden behind the headline and you will see your ‘bonus money’ needs to be wagered 11 (yes eleven) times on selections priced even-money or greater, before it can be withdrawn.

Selby takes his third 2016 Ranking Tournament

Some normality returned to snooker last week with a rare meeting of two of the sport’s A-listers in the final of the UK Championship.  Unquestionably the trend bucking final, featuring Mark Selby and Ronnie O’Sullivan, was a result of the ‘long format’ that competition features.

Given Selby has now won three ranking competitions during the current season, also being a beaten finalist in another (some record considering he has only played eight), I think he is outstanding value for the World Championships at 6/1 with Bet365, Betfred, BetStars and a few others.

Beforehand, starting on December 12th we have the Coral Scottish Open, the third leg of the newly introduced ‘Home Nations’ series of tournaments.  The first two, the English Open and the Northern Ireland Open were won by Liang Wenbo and Mark King.  Winner’s you would not have found with a search warrant.

Now a ranking event, the eleventh one on a busy 2016/17 calendar, the 128-player Coral Scottish Open has a first prize of £70,000 and a total prize-pool of £366,000. This one does have a sense of ‘crap-shot’ about it with a ‘best of seven’ format for the first four rounds and a ‘best of nine’ in the quarter finals.

Nevertheless if I see some 10/1 about John Higgins I’m taking it.  The Scotsman has been in fine form in recent months and only narrowly lost to Mark Selby (5-6) in the quarter-finals of the UK Championship.  Full of confidence and likely to over-perform on home soil – this event has only been held once since 2004 – he’s well worth an interest.

Guess the name

I see Stan James have acquired a lot of former Ladbrokes shops that were up for sale at the garage sale necessitated to allow Ladbrokes and Coral to jump into bed together. Reportedly these properties would be sat alongside Old Kent Road if they were on a Monopoly Board, being low value real-estate and little more than cupboards to put FOBT’s into.

The chain of shops will be re-branding shortly having agreed with Unibet, who bought Stan James online business, to do so.  It’s an interesting one because the name has Stan James name has never had any reference to gambling (like all the old firms) but renaming in the mid 2010’s will surely necessitate some reference to the word ‘Bet’.

Hamilton’s wing-man is…

The shock decision of newly crowned F1 World Champion Nico Rosberg to retire caught a lot of bookmakers and punters unaware.  And now people don’t know what they are doing in regards to the ante-post market on the 2017 F1 Drivers Championship.

For starters Lewis Hamilton should not be as big as 11/8 (Bet365).  With the retirement of Rosberg I made him about the same price as he was at this time in 2015, 8/11. But the market turmoil revolves around which driver is going to get the seat in the car which has ruled supreme for three full seasons.

The ante-post books now have Pascal Wehrlein as an 8/1 poke for the title, Fernando Alonso is as short as 10’s and the same goes for Valtteri Bottas.  Even Jenson Button, who ‘retired’ after the last race in Abu Dhabi is in the mix at a top-price of 20/1 on offer.

This one could run for a while – I don’t see an announcement before mid-January – but it’s a fact whoever you pit against the Mercedes ensconced Lewis Hamilton, they are not going to beat him baring an ungodly amount of misfortune.

I was going to put forward Kimi Raikkonen at 50/1 each-way.  But that price is only available at William Hill and they are the only firm going each-way terms of 1-2 and not 1-2-3.

Saara Aalto’s too short

‘The biggest outsider of three’ system has been proven to be utter folly by statistics in horseracing but I still believe in it in TV and Novelty betting and its leading me to believe our ore previously advised bets on ‘5 After Midnight’ are very much live in X Factor 2016.

If you have backed them already then I recommend a ‘saver’ with Matt Terry and if you have not, a good old fashioned ‘lay’ of Finland’s Saara Aaalto on Betfair is surely the way to go.  She has the disadvantage of having the unpopular Sharon Osbourne as her manager and her nationality is unlikely to win her many votes.  As we often see with Scottish contestants in such shows, the support of a country is a powerful weapon.

Recommended Bets

Wold Snooker Championships:    Mark Selby  at 6/1 with Betfred

X Factor:                                            LAY Saara Aaalto                1.75 on Betfair