Roy The Boy's weekly blog recalls his unforgettable day at Court, the remaining F1 season for Lewis Hamilton and a value tip in the upcoming Shanghai Masters snooker event.
The Longest Day
I don’t know if I ‘won the battle but lost the war’ or if ‘the operation was a success but the patient simply died’? A bit of both maybe.
Today was court day where I priced up my ‘speeding incident’ as: evens charges dropped, 7/4 standard speeding fine, 4/1 ticket & fine, 66’s jail time.
10.30 am was my court time and, in an attempt to beat the queues, I arrived a half hour early. It was a great plan but one that failed miserably. In total, there were 221 cases to be heard on the day and I was No. 221; that’s the last one of all when a first come first served basis is not employed.
The helpful clerk informed me the judge was very fair and rattles through all the cases and submissions as quickly as possible. That meant I could be up from anytime between 1pm and 5pm although not between 1.15pm and 2pm as that is his lunch time.
What do you do in such a situation? I decided to go for a coffee and write my defence statement on a napkin. “Thank you for seeing me today your honour” my speech was due to begin. “I had hoped to be legally represented but after five or six hours of waiting – not to mention several glasses of red wine at the bar opposite the courthouse – my solicitor has been forced to leave!. Now I appreciate we have all had a long day but now that you have found the time to hear my argument I’d like you to consider that his services, like my day off work, has already inflicted a severe financial wound that will seriously impact my wellbeing. Therein, if it pleases the court, I would propose common sense prevails and with consideration given to the facts we wipe our noses and call an end to a busy and frustrating day!”
Little did I know at that stage exactly how much the day was going to cost me and it was not a result of my simple speech.
With hours to kill and three coffees already sending me hyper a betting office, possibly better named ‘betting lounge’ these days, seemed a logical safe port. It was a bad decision.
Sheffield’s BAGS meeting immediately looked like a good old fashioned opportunity with the results reading: 5-2-4; 5-6-4; 6-3-4; 6-3-4 and 6-3-4 again. It was clear the inside was a quagmire and the railers had absolutely no chance.
The game was on, back the outside boxes and lay the railers for all the tea in Ceylon, India and China combined. My opening salvo saw me back both traps 1&2 to finish last whist backing traps 5&6 to finish in the top-three positions. I topped-up with 6x3, 6x4 and 6x5 in forecasts and added some 4x5x6 tricast combos.
The traps open and the stripped-jacketed runner was off to a flier. However, he immediately made a bee-line for the rails destroying trap 4 & 5’s chances on the run to the opening bend. Even turning for home, when the race was lost, he could still be seen to be railing tighter than every other runner in the race taking the proverbial paint off of the fence. His defeat was no fault of mine or his, the racing manager had simply classified this runner as a wide-running seed when he wasn’t.
Now the chase was on. I repeated the dose in the next race with increased stakes only to see yet more inexplicable carnage. Quickly going broke and with the gambling demons working overtime – the sickest of emotions which see you chase and chase and chase as if nothing else in the world mattered – I smacked enough money to buy a dozen lifetimes worth of speeding fines on the counter and backed another trap 6 runner to win. He went lame at the opening bend when poised to go clear.
At this point, if I were in England I swear I’d have found a Cash Converters, sold the kids Playstations, TV’s and tablets and gone back for more. Thankfully I am not in the land of Cash Converters & Icelands and all that was gained was a sobering reminder of the person I once was and could so easily be again.
By the time I had walked the streets for four hours, feeling like the proverbial plonker and wondering how I could patch this gaping financial chasm I had inflicted on myself (and I am not ashamed to say has left me in a hole), I almost forgot about His Honour and my all-important speech.
By the time I got my moment to shine I was deflated being like balloon left over from last Christmas which had remained behind the sofa unnoticed all summer long.
“How do you plead?” asked the judge. “As guilty as sin” I replied. “Have you anything you wish to add?” he asked. “Yes, it’s been a long day I’m kind of tired and I just want to go home. I’m happy to pay whatever fine is deemed appropriate but I would ask to have a month to make the payment!”
As the saying goes ‘I fought the law and the law won’. Ultimately it wasn’t much of a fight and the big winner on the day was a high-street betting outfit.
Back on Track
And so it is back to the drawing board. Old fashioned values like money management, homework, trying to identify mistakes, value and exploiting the situations where the odds on offer outweigh the true probability. Most importantly to NOT mug-punt and hot-headedly chase losses.
I never come off the rails when it comes to poker, or F1 come to that, and so it’s motor racing that is subject of my next ‘play’.
BetVictor have opened a market on the number of races Lewis Hamilton will win during the current season. So far he has seven victories and the Gibraltar-based firm say it is 1,000/1 he does not add to that tally.
That’s not a bad bet, €10,000 to a tenner is a fair bet considering one accident could result in an injury capable of ending the Brits season. A broken leg would do it, or arm, the kind of thing you could do not only when driving a high-performance car but also when out partying – something he is apparently doing aplenty these days.
At the other end of the scale, I am really taken with the 14/1 about Hamilton going unbeaten through the remaining seven races of the year. He achieved six wins and a second during the 2014 campaign so it is not beyond him or his superior car.
In 2013 Sebastian Vettel, in an equally dominant Red Bull, took the last nine races of the season. This is a 14/1 poke that has some real teeth. It has to be the play with no issues in turning a buck once/if Hamilton lands the next couple of races.
On a race-to-race basis he can be laid at 1/2 and BetVictor will keep this market turning all the way up/until the season’s conclusion. It will be hard not to make this market profitable should Hamilton prevail at the next race in Singapore for which he is top-priced 4/7 with Coral.
I see snooker referee Michaela Tabb has reached an out-of-court settlement with World Snooker who she no longer officiates for. The Scott added some much needed colour to snooker and officiated over two World Finals. We are never going to know the grounds for her departure but I suspect this sport has more dirt under its carpet than most. That is not at the top-end of the game, where I am fortune enough to personally know a number of the leading pros and could not question their integrity for a single moment, but who knows outside the Top 32?
It would appear snooker is thriving in the Far East, especially from a betting viewpoint. How else could you explain every major bookmaking firm pricing-up the most mundane and little-known tournaments. At the time of writing the 6 Reds World Championship is underway in Bangkok where five of the remaining eight players are oriental. I’ve never heard of three of them.
On September 14th the Shanghai Masters begins. With snooker results looking like something drawn out of a lucky-dip bag during the past year, I think anything is possible and therein Michael White is going to get some of my money at 66/1 (each-way ½ odds 1-2) with BoyleSports or SkyBet. The 24-year-old Welsh cue-man, the youngest player within the current world Top 16, had a great run in this tournament last year. He also collected both the Betway Snooker Shootout and the Indian Open (where he thrashed of Ricky Walden 5-0 in the final) this past Spring.