Weekly Blog – Premier League Darts & EU Referendum

Weekly Blog from Roy The Boy and he looks back on Eurovision and Spanish Grand Prix and also has bets on Phil Taylor in Premier League Darts & Remain vote in EU Referendum.

Taylor Makes Premier League Final for Me

Rag2gar is doubtlessly going to preview the darts in full elsewhere amongst the Betswot pages, but I’m hoping he is in agreement with me when suggesting Phil Taylor is well over-priced at 9/2 to win the Premier League final on Thursday.

Taylor has only won the Premier League six times before and was a beaten finalist on another occasion!  With the other three remaining players in the competition all failing to make the final of a small competition in Hamburg last weekend, and Taylor already accounting for Gary Anderson twice in the regular Premier League season (Anderson has also only won two of his last eight PL games), I certainly think the 14-time PDC World Champion makes the final and that in itself is a great 5/6 shot.

Near Misses Galore

Safe in the knowledge that neither the pole setter or race winner had set the fastest lap in the Spanish Grand Prix for an eternity, last weekend I took the bold step of opposing Lewis Hamilton (7/4) and Nico Rosberg (9/4) in the fastest lap market, backing eight different drivers to get the accolade at prices ranging from 8/1 to 100/1.

With the star Mercedes pair not getting beyond the opening corners I was counting my money but, alas, it was premature.  Despite seemingly having every base covered, it was 150/1 poke Daniil Kvyat that pulled a rabbit out of the bag by clocking the fastest lap time of the race.

That faux-pas barely registers on the scale when compared against the Eurovision Song Contest.  What a betting medium this competition continues to be. I’d backed no less than three acts at 20/1 which all ultimately traded at 2/1 or shorter at some point, plus I was on Russia at 4/1 who were 1/2 by the time the voting lines closed.

Australia – trading at 10/1 when the voting lines closed and as short as 1.05 on Betfair in-running – were my biggest winners.  However it was Ukraine, whose artist sounded like she was being tortured, that ultimately prevailed.  From a betting viewpoint this was not an unexpected result, Ukraine were towards the top of the betting for the past few weeks after all, but just why then public latched on to them is beyond me.

Monaco a Second Go

The Monaco Grand Prix is the next race on the F1 calendar.  This is always a coma-inducing spectacle.  As 10 of last 12 winners starting from pole underlines, it is as predictable as a bar of laxative.

Here overtaking is more impossible than unlikely and the probability of a Safety Car is proven to be well over 80 percent.  But, interestingly, just one of last 14 winners (or pole setters) has recorded the fastest lap here.  So, once again, ‘fastest lap’ is the primary F1 market I’m looking at next weekend.

Stay on the Figures

I got some excellent up-to-date forecast figures from Dr Stephen Fisher (of Oxford University) this week in regards to the forthcoming UK/Europe Referendum.  They read as follows:

Share of the Vote Remain Leave
Betting markets 54.3% 45.7%
Polls 51.3% 48.7%
Expert forecasts 56.0% 44.0%
Volunteer forecasts 54.3% 45.7%
Poll based models 55.0% 45.0%
Non-poll based models 52.0% 48.0%
Combined forecast (mean) 53.8% 46.2%

These suggest to me that Ladbrokes 9/4 about the ‘remain’ vote being between 50.0% and 55.0% is something of misstep and it’s a price that must be taken.

This Week’s Bets

Phil Taylor to beat Gary Anderson (Premier League Play-Off) at 5/6 with Sportingbet

EU Referendum:  Remain vote to be between 50-55% at 9/4    with Ladbrokes