Weekly Blog from Roy The Boy which looks at various betting markets including the Nobel Prize, British Grand Prix, Tour De France and Sports Personality award.
Nothing Nobel about 2009 Award Winner
Congratulations BetVictor who have priced-up the market on the Nobel Peace Prize. The recipient of the award will be made public on October 9th.
A list of previous Nobel Peace Prize winners reads as follows…
2014: Kailash Satyarthi and Malala Yousafzai
“For their struggle against the suppression of children and young people and for the right of all children to education.”
2013: Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW)
“For its extensive efforts to eliminate chemical weapons.”
2012: European Union (EU)
“For over six decades contributed to the advancement of peace and reconciliation, democracy and human rights in Europe.”
2011: Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, Leymah Gbowee and Tawakkol Karman
“For their non-violent struggle for the safety of women and for women's rights to full participation in peace-building work.”
2010: Liu Xiaobo
“For his long and non-violent struggle for fundamental human rights in China.”
2009: Barack H. Obama
“For his extraordinary efforts to strengthen international diplomacy and cooperation between peoples.”
Make no mistake this is an award with a destiny which is impossible to predict. For example, as Oliver Stone remarked about the 2009 winner: “That the President waging two wars would receive the Nobel Peace Prize was surreal, but when the world heard Obama’s defence of American unilateralism and pre-emption the meaning of the prize was once more diminished.
“In his acceptance speech he said: “I believe the United States of America must remain a standard bearer in the conduct of war. That is what makes us different from those whom we fight!” Fighting talk from a war President just been given an award for his peace efforts.
I am a big Oliver Stone fan don’t you know and interestingly his next film project, due to be released at Christmas, is a portrayal of whistle-blower Edward Snowden who is ironically in the running for the 2015 Nobel Peace Prize.
At 9/1 I’m so tempted to take a punt on America’s most wanted man but the truth is, this would be an example of the heart ruling the head and I cannot play this market which is headed at 5/1 by Mussie Zerai, a Catholic priest of Eritrean origin living in Italy who has helped some of the thousands of African migrants who have risked their lives to cross the Mediterranean.
Hulkenberg has the Force
Something more conventional now and the British Grand Prix at Silverstone this weekend.
I’ve a big liking about William Hills’ 100/30 offering on Nico Hulkenberg finishing in the top-six. The German, riding on the crest of a wave following victory in the Le Mans 24hr, finished sixth in the last F1 race in Austria.
His Force India car, powered by a Mercedes engine, is reportedly unveiling a raft of upgrades this weekend and with this circuit not too dissimilar to Austria, I think he can take a top-six once again with any proportion of luck.
He is 4/6 about a top-ten finish and that is a scenario I priced up at 1/3!
The Darts are back on the Box
Darts, of the non Premier League variety, will soon be back on the box. The World Matchplay from Blackpool is a little over a fortnight away. It’s early days but I do like Betfair’s 20/1 about Dave Chisnall.
No other firm is going bigger than 16/1 about Chizzy who was an absolute revelation in the Premier League during the spring. He ultimately went down 10 legs to nine in the semi-final losing out to Gary Anderson who went on to win the final.
I need to do some stats and trawl through some results but Sportingbet’s 9/2 about there NOT being a 170 checkout did immediately strike me as overly generous.
Sweep up the 28’s with a Froome
Need I remind you the Tour de France begins this weekend? Chris Froome is now as short as 13/8 to win the race – one good reason not to go to Paddy Power – which still tells me, for all I am worth, that he must be backed at Betvictor’s 28/1 for Sports Personality of the Year.
If he does so and Rory McIlroy fails to win a major allied to Murray failing to win Wimbledon – a scenario which is clear odds-on – Froome will surely go to the head of the Sports Personality of the Year betting at around 3/1.
This will change again after the World Athletics Championships but the SPOTY event is all about building a strong ante-post portfolio.
Remaining on the subject… How can Coral’s justify making ‘Horse Racing’ their 15/8 jolly to provide the award winner? Tony McCoy is now readily available at 9/2 and Ryan Moore at 100/1. The only other jockey in the betting is Frankie Dettori (50/1 with Coral) and being Italian he is not eligible for the award!
Two for the Tour
Finally, the Tour itself, I’ll take some 4/6 about Geraint Thomas in a match bet against Estonian Tanel Kangert. I also like Paddy Power’s 7/4 about Mark Cavendish claiming three or more stage wins during the tour.
Just yesterday Cavendish, who has claimed 25 Tour stage wins during six TDF’s, received the welcome news that his chief sprinting rival, powerhouse German Marcel Kittel, is set to miss the race due to illness. I don’t think Power’s have accounted for this late withdrawal.