Lonesharkoy previews Saturday's Under 20 action and has bets on Longford and Mayo.
Longford vs Westmeath U-20
Simply put, the prices look correct on the Connacht final, and there’s no bet that leaps off the page as an obvious selection so instead we’re going to look to the under-20 championship, and start with what looks like a great value bet between Longford and Westmeath – Longford to win at home at 4/1. Longford need to win this game by ten points to have any chance of securing second spot in the group, and it’s fair to say that this won’t happen – but that creates a very different dynamic here.
Under normal circumstances, if Westmeath were two or three points down in a championship game against their neighbours, they be all out to retrieve the gap and win the game. Here they’ll be conscious of the fact that magic number is ten and chasing the game in that situation could be counter-productive. Longford have scoring forwards, and if Westmeath were to go on the attack and concede a goal on the breakaway, suddenly they’ve given Longford hope of producing something akin to Munster rugby’s win over Gloucester in the ‘Miracle Match’.
It’s entirely possible that Westmeath will win this game at their ease; they are four or five points the better team after all. However Longford will attack this game with abandon, and being able to afford to lose is a strange place, psychologically. That makes 4/1 a worthwhile play.
Longford to win @ 4/1 with Paddy Power and Betfair
Roscommon vs Mayo U-20
Roscommon definitely have some advantages coming into this game. They will play at home, they’ve two good championship outings under their belt, and manager Shane Curran has had a decent chance to see what his players are like in the white heat of championship. Mayo, for their part, have played Leitrim in a facile outing and could yet be found to be a quite limited team.
Nonetheless, player for player, Mayo still should have an edge here – all the more if Roscommon midfielder Conor Shanagher is unfit to start.
This was supposed to be Galway’s championship to lose, arguably at All-Ireland level as well as just in Connacht. The Rossies turned them over in Tuam last week, but that was heavily assisted by the straight red card shown to Finian O’Laoi after just seven minutes. At that stage Galway led by 0-4 to 0-1 and looked to be in control. Roscommon also lost Liam Cregg due to a late red card and he had a good outing against a capable forward in Robert Finnerty – adjusting to his absence won’t be easy.
Mayo are very much an unknown quantity in comparison but word from within the county is that this is a very capable group, and that even before Galway were knocked out by the Rossies, they fancied their chances of turning a few heads. The market would suggest that this is being reflected in the best struck. Get on board with the last few bits of even money while you can.
Mayo to win @ 1/1 with Bet365