Tennis – David Goffin overpriced for Wimbledon & US Open

Shane Lambert looks at the recent play of David Goffin and he thinks he is overpriced for both Wimbledon and the US Open from Flushing Meadows.

David Goffin did some damage in the ATP Rome draw this past week. Ahead of losing to Andy Murray, in a match that revealed some major service woes on clay, Goffin took out Tomas Berdych in the round of sixteen. While Belgium's top player failed to make the semi-finals in Rome, that's probably mainly due to the surface of the event. His generally solid play of late still suggests that he is a player to be picked for success at majors that are down the road at really long odds.

When it comes to the French Open my opinion of Goffin is that he's too slight of body to win the title at Roland Garros. The sliding that takes place on clay puts the muscles to the test more so than the other surfaces do. I think that's a big reason why Nadal, the buffest player on tour, has reigned supreme at the event over the last decade. The Spaniard has the physical wherewithal to withstand the grinding game that clay often challenges players to deal with. Goffin, who is slight of build, is built more like Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic - only shorter.

For each of those two players, Roland Garros is their worst Grand Slam and, over the long run, I think it will be Goffin's too. For that reason if you're looking at longshots for the French then Nicolas Almagro at 600s with 888Sport is there and Dominic Thiem, a player who I think is a future No. 1, is still at 40s with BetVictor.

But I do think that Goffin could do some damage at Wimbledon this season. He made the fourth round there last year and I see improvements out of him of late. Mainly, he's actually beating players in the Top 10 a bit now, as he beat Wawrinka at Indian Wells in additiona to his recent double-bagel against Berdych. Goffin is only 25 still and, except for Milos Raonic, the Belgian is looking up at nothing but more elderly players. It can't be long now until the World No. 13 passes Richard Gasquet, David Ferrer, Tomas Berdych, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, and Stan Wawrinka.

When it comes to betting odds, Goffin is way out at 300/1 with 888Sport for the All England Club, odds that definitely under-rate his chances. Unfortunately the firm doesn't offer each-way options, but Paddy Power do (1-2, 1/2) if you'll accept 250/1 instead.

I'm looking for Goffin to play above his ranking at Wimbledon and to make the quarters. Who knows what the seeds will look like by then but if he draws Federer, Wawrinka, Tsonga, Gasquet, Berdych, or Ferrer that late in the tournament I would actually expect Goffin to go on to the semi-finals. In short, at 250/1 each way there's a realistic enough scenario where you could get one match-win away from 125/1 hitting. You could hedge your bets to fork the result at that point or sit back and see if a small bet sets you up with a big bankroll for a while.

Goffin is also 200/1 for the 2016 US Open with BetVictor and that's good enough for me. If things go well, he might even be ranked 5th to 8th by that point in the season and facing more comfortable draws than he has faced in the past. Regardless, I do think Goffin will shorten big time from his current odds to something like 40/1 just prior to the starts of each event. It's head turning with this player that he's now starting to get some big wins, something that he was always missing in years gone by.

6-0, 6-0 is the score he posted against Berdych. You can watch tennis for years before you see a Top 10 player lose that bad to anyone.

Recommendations:

1 point each way David Goffin to win Wimbledon at 250/1 with Paddy Power

1 point each way David Goffin to win US Open at 200/1 with BetVictor

 

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