November 9 Betting Advice

Roy The Blog discusses Eurovision, Big Brother, Formula 1, I'm A Celebrity and the World Series Of Poker November 9 is in his latest blog.

TV Show – Show Me the Money

I still cannot get my head around the 2014 Eurovision.  It is an event I’ve excelled at in recent years and, despite my number one rule being ‘look out for the gay vote’ – is there a gay pub in the UK or Ireland that does not stage a Eurovision Party to coincide with the event – I managed to avoid what was an obvious winner.

This year’s Big Brother is proving to be another head scratcher albeit a trader’s paradise.  Chris, as short as 11/4 just a week ago, is now odds-on to be eliminated on Friday and 28/1 to win the competition.  Mark, who has been hovering around 3/1 for weeks, is now out to 20’s.  Conversely Ashleigh has been a veritable knock-over in the past week and is now 5/4 despite being double-figures for over a month.

I think we are too deep into the competition to get involved now but check back in a week when one housemate has assaulted another and the market has been turned on its head once more.

Thank God I’ve never got an “I’m a Celebrity Get Me Out of Here” wrong although it is a sad parade of events when you are anticipating a TV show which is over five months away.

Even the cash-cow which is Formula 1 is on the back burner.  The next race on the 2014 calendar is almost a month away.  That one is in Spa, Belgium, which is an awesome high-speed racetrack.  Therein its custom made for two cars:  Mercedes and Williams’.

I’ll be looking towards Valtteri Bottas’ to take his fourth podium from the last five races. Naturally, however, the price will need to be right.  Bwin are currently going 17/11 but they are the only betting firm currently offering prices on the market.  There is no liquidity on the Betfair exchange where only pennies are on offer at 2.5.

November Nine:

The firms have not been shy in pricing-up November’s World Series of Poker however and, thankfully, they have not mirrored each other with their quotes.

Naturally it is impossible to have a firm fancy, such is the nature of the game, but I cannot recall the last time a short stack came through to claim the ultimate prize ($10 million this year).

For that reason I’ll put a line through Bruno Politano and William Tonking.  Favourite Jorryt vann Hoff is another I’ll strike off.

Favourites are always under-priced in poker events as odds-compilers do not accept the theory that a player with half the chips in play is NOT an even-money shot to win.  He has, after all, eight opponents to overcome.

Felix Stephenson (5/1 Powers), Mark Newhouse (11/2 Coral), Martin Jacobson (9/1 Ladbrokes) are the plays for me with the best prices on offer.

Advised bets:

0.5 points win Felix Stephenson at 5/1 with Paddy Power

 

0.5 points win Mark Newhouse at 11/2 with Coral

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0.5 points win Martin Jacobsen at 9/1 with Ladbrokes

 

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