Ceebee looks ahead to the Skybet Chase on Saturday and has bets on
Frederici and On Tour.
3.15 Saturday – Doncaster 3m – Sky Bet Listed Handicap Chase
I sat down to write about the Thyestes but with only 14 declared at the 5 day stage, and a bad priced favourite, the SkyBet Chase at Doncaster made far more appeal as homework. We’re looking at a fairly small field and with plenty previous to go on we can come up with a decent bet. Let’s go through them…
Dingo Dollar has an obvious chance. He’s a C&D winner who placed in the Ladbroke last time. He finished 3rd and those who were 2nd (Elegant Escape) and 4th (Beware the Bear) have both won decent staying handicaps since. The step back from 3m2f to 3m should suit. However, he was beaten 17L that day and was also beaten off a lower mark at Ayr last spring. Also against him is the form of the Alan King yard. They have been very poor in 2019 with only 2 winners from their past 27 runners and many beaten favourites. And at 5/2 is simply too short, he’s not exactly chucked in.
Willie Boy got 9lbs for his last win; it seems quite harsh – that wasn’t a strong race at Wetherby and the few who’ve come out of it have made no impact elsewhere since. The 3m trip is a small worry (he did win a 3m ptp) and his jumping will always be a worry.
Art Mauresque struggles to see out this 3m trip, his best form is over shorter. The 9yo was beaten in similar handicaps off 148 and 150 suggesting 152 is a stiff mark. He’s classy enough to get involved with the good ground to suit but I’m against him.
Minella Rocco needs a stiffer test to show his best. An easy 3 miles on decent ground will not seeing his staying powers come to the fore. Having dropped a few lbs I hope he’s aimed at the National. Runs at Cheltenham apparently.
Warriors Tale was beaten a head in this race 12mts ago but now 6lbs higher the 10yo will struggle to go one better. He won what looks to have been a weak Grand Sefton last time. The runner up was beaten in a Hunter Chase next time out and the 3rd, 6th and 7th were all well beaten next time as well. He’s in form and the trip/track/ground will suit so no surprise if he’s involved in the finish but he’s not handicapped to win a decent chase. I’d also entertain the argument that 3m might stretch his stamina.
Singlefarmpayment is a (insert unsavoury name here). He ran well when second to Cogry is a similar sort of event at Cheltenham in December. Maybe the flatter track at Doncaster will suit the weak (polite term) finisher. That Cheltenham race was a small field with a few of the fancied ones running badly so I’d treat it with caution. 1st & 3rd well beaten since. With such a poor win record (1 from 13 over fences) there’s not much value in tipping him up e/w at 10/1 but I can see the argument for him going very close (again).
O O Seven beat Go Conquer over C&D last time. The 5lb hike he got for that pushes him up to 152. Last season he was beaten in handicaps off the same mark twice and once off 153. He was afforded an easy opportunity last time in a 5 runner race off a lenient mark and duly obliged – this is a much different task.
Go Conquer is a bit like both Warriors Tale and Art Mauresque – has ran well over 3miles but on occasions it has looked to be 100yds too far for him. And highly tried, he’s not handicapped to win. He has run well on his two starts this season, placing in similar events to this, but now 4lbs higher he looks handicapped to the hilt. Career best required; unlikely.
On Tour has been well beaten on all 3 starts this season and now an 11yo he is unlikely to get the better of this field. That’s on first glance, but he’ll be ignored in the market and could definitely out run his price and sneak into a place at a big price. He has dropped to his lowest ever chase mark (133) having ran ok on seasonal reappearance off 140 and finished 2nd at Aintree last April off 137. The veterans chase he placed in last time was a decent affair. He was ridden quite negatively that day (the winner skipped clear off the front) but On Tour who was 10th coming out of the back straight stayed on past plenty of them up the Sandown straight. With a likely strong pace and plenty of unconvincing stayers in here this fella could pick up the pieces late.
Calipto will be having his first try at 3miles, from all we’ve seen I wouldn’t be too confident it’ll suit. His last win (got 5lbs for it) was a particularly weak event at Wincanton. He’s hard to fancy. May go to Cheltenham on Saturday instead.
Monbeg River is another who is hard to fancy after almost 3mts off and just 1 start since last May. Another with question-marks about the trip (1 try at 3miles saw him finish 3rd) and even if getting it he could easily be outclassed in what’s his toughest task is to date. A previous course winner I’d love to know if he has been kept for this after his Ayr effort or if he’s had a setback?
Brian Boranha has shot up the handicap from 114 to 139 over his past 5 starts. He could still be improving, likes the good ground and a guaranteed stayer I’d have him on the shortlist. However, the value of his last win is fairly weak looking - 7 runners at Sedgefield, 2 early fallers and the leader ran out.
Favorito Buck’s (the apostrophe is not a typo) is one of the youngest and lightly raced in the field. As such, and as I’ve highlighted many negatives above, he’s immediately interesting. He won’t get a solo on the front like he did when winning at Ascot in November. Needs to put a bad effort last time behind him.
Frederici went close 12mts ago when 5th beaten 2L. That day he made a mistake 4out and then went for home too early before getting swallowed up after the last. Only 2lbs higher now after finishing 3rd in Ludlow next time and despite it being a small track, that wasn’t a bad race. His first start this season, after 8mts off, saw him run well, 5th beaten 10L, in the typically competitive Becher Chase. A proven stayer having won over 3m4f (on good ground) in Ireland. He’s also entered on Thursday at Faenham but this is the plan.
1.5pt e/w Frederici 25/1 – Bet365 (22/1 is fair enough)
1pt e/w On Tour 20/1 – BetVictor & Bet365