Tweener looks at the Ladies Singles Outright market at Wimbledon and concludes that Serena Williams really should win again if close to her best.
1 point win Serena Williams ton win Ladies Singles at 7-4 with William Hill, Ladbrokes and Paddy Power
As we are all well aware, it is all about Serena Williams.
If she plays at her best, the rest can go home. When she isn’t playing at her best as was the case at the French Open this year, she still won it. So why is she 7-4?
This price is mainly due to her 2 losses in her past 2 years and the nature of the women's game is more prone to upsets since its best of 3 sets and women's tennis form fluctuates more wildly than the male equivalent.
The 2-1 on offer for Serena has long gone but the 7-4 available is still satisfactory, frankly because you are backing the best player in the world and the draw is satisfactory. Grass is arguably her best surface and if she demolished her early rounds with ease, she will be all but impossible to beat.
The only other player who has a game to complete with her is Kvitova. However, she has been under a bit of cloud lately; she has played no warm up events citing illness/injury. If Kvitova gets through the 1st few rounds displaying good tennis. We can be for a great match but this seldom happens. It is much more likely Kvitova will lose in the earlier rounds. I am not keen on the 4-1 for Kvitova until she put in some good performance and as long as Serena is in the draw, the 4-1 will not shorten too much.
Of the rest....
Sharapova is not a runner to me. She has not done well here for a few years and her serve is still a liability to me. She has a tricky 1st round match, one she can definitely lose.
Lisicki game is very well suited to grass and she has been playing well. She has the same problem as most 'powerful' player has who are just not in the elite level and have not won a big title. The same problem Berdych and Tsonga has now but one which Wawrinka conquered. These players tend to get tight when it gets to the finishing line and choke, they stop going for the big winners or those winners start turning into errors which ultimately leads to their demise. So when they come up against a great defensive player, they are vulnerable such as the case Lisicki v Kerber a few weeks ago. Her best price of 20-1 is a little tight, she needs to be on an A game to justify that price and I am not sure she can justify it given the variation in her performance.
Kerber was the interesting player but she is only 25-1 now. Again, she should probably find 1 or 2 too good in the semis/final but she will be tough to put away.
Azarenka is interesting but her draw isn’t great and she isn’t quite at the level she used to be. Perhaps her best will come later on in the year at the US Open.
Halep should get blown apart on grass by a big hitter in the latter stages of the tournament. She simply does not possess the weapons on this surface against a peak Serena/Kvitova type of player.
Safarova has been a revelation this year and she might be able to replicate a similar to last year, but her draw is very hard. She can even lose in the 1st round in my opinion and it is also very hard to turn around a break out performance such as her in French Open and back it up quickly.
Of the rest who I am interested in a play for trading are Madison Keys, Venus Williams and Karolina Pliskova. All 3 possess huge games which suit the surface and are capable of beating anyone on their day.
Camilla Giorgi is another girl who can go very deep if she is in form.
Bencic has been very impressive in the last few weeks, but she got a tricky 1st round and I feel the amount of tennis might catch up with her given her age,
To conclude, back Serena and a small play on others for trading purposes.
1 point win Serena Williams ton win Ladies Singles at 7-4 with William Hill, Ladbrokes and Paddy Power.