Roy The Boy Blog looks at the Eurovision, the UK General Election and a bet on Fernando Alonso in the Russian Grand Prix.
Italy stronger than ever as Russia’s refused entry
Italy are still even money on the Betfair exchange for the Eurovision song contest. It’s already a strong market with almost a million matched – maybe not a huge surprise given the grand final is only a little over a fortnight away.
I really expected them to have drifted out quite dramatically by now but I’m glad they have not. The big news in the market is the withdrawal of Russia (can be backed at 490 on Betfair). ‘The Reds’ have gone off amongst the top three in the Eurovision betting for the past three years but they have officially withdrawn following Ukraine’s decision to refuse entry to their contestant, wheelchair bound Yulia Samoylova, who committed the cardinal sin of touring Crimea in 2015.
Election a natural phenomenon
There’s a ‘snap election’ in England and that seems akin to knowing when a natural catastrophe is going to happen, such as, in this instance, a landslide!
Betfair and William Hill are the only two places to have a serious election bet with a great range of markets and a willingness to take a bet. In the scheme of things the 1.16 on the exchange about the ‘blues’ taking an overall majority is outstanding. Of course such a price is not going to pay the mortgage (unless you have a year’s mortgage payments on) meaning a play on a poor election turn-out is a better way of going.
Hill’s are going 4/5 about under 63 percent of the electorate putting an X on a ballot form which looks a great price according to my political betting guru who also likes the 3.6 available on the Betfair exchange about a 55.01-60 percent turnout.
Fernando can complete 90 percent
The firms have over reacted to the news that Fernando Alonso has declared to his team that he will retire from any race where a top-10 ‘point’s finish’ is unlikely to happen for him. In short, as he did in Bahrain last time, he will simply pull into the pits citing some kind of mechanical problem. But, just as was the case in Bahrain, once Alonso (or any other driver) completes 90 percent of a race they are declared an official race ‘finisher’.
While his car is not competitive, the Spaniard’s McLaren is surely going to arrive in Russia a little more reliable than it has so far. And, combined, these reasons lead me to believe William Hill’s even money about the dual World Champion still circulating the Sochi track after lap 48 (of the 53 race distance) is clear value.
UK General Election Voter Turnout Under 63% 4/5 William Hill
UK General Election Voter Turnout 55.01-60% 3.6 Betfair
Fernando Alonso to be classified in Russian Grand Prix 1/1 William Hill