The Gain Line believes Glasgow will win the local Scottish derby against Edinburgh today but history has shown the winning margin to be within 2 scores.
As regular rugby followers will be aware, the Guinness Pro12 features a series of local derbies over Christmas to allow players and fans alike a chance to stay close to home over the festive period. Yesterday saw two Irish derbies and a Welsh one, whilst today features another Welsh derby and the Scottish one. Tomorrow is the Italian derby.
It's the Scottish game which has drawn our attention. Glasgow have won 8 of their 10 Pro12 games this season to sit third in the table whereas Edinburgh has won only 4 of theirs to sit eight. At home, Glasgow are 3 wins from 3 having beaten the three Irish provinces of Leinster (by 2 Points), Connacht (by 18 Points) and Munster (3 Points). Since a surprise 1 Point win against Munster in the opening round, Edinburgh have been truly awful on their travels with a 49 Point defeat to Ospreys and a 30 Point defeat to Ulster.
But derbies can be different. Glasgow have won 7 of their last 7 home meetings against Edinburgh by margins of 1 - 13 Points. As such, the +14 Point handicap on offer to Edinburgh may appeal to some at 10/11 (SkyBet, Stan James & Ladbrokes). Although I have concerns over Edinburgh's ability to hold Glasgow to that this season, a small play on Glasgow to win by 1-12 Points at 15/8 with Ladbrokes in the Winning Margin market looks worth a small stakes punt.