Roy The Boy's first weekly blog of 2015 looks through the early year TV and Film betting markets and offers some opening thoughts on the upcoming Cheltenham market. Celebrity Big Brother
Amongst a pile of other rubbish these past few days, Geordie Shore’s Gaz Beadle has tweeted that he is heading to Ireland or is off to Courchevel for Skiing next week asking if it was any good? I’d say there is as much chance of him showing up there as Brad and Angelina being pictured on the beach in Benidorm. He is celeb Big Brother bound and Paddy Power, who introduced him into their betting at 10/1 after Betswotter’s made enquiries, now have him at 7/1. Nine more companies have subsequently added him to their betting lists with Betfred and Skybet offering 10/1.
The trouble is the reported line-up looks strong and if/when he walks into the CBB house, his initial odds may not contract too much. One to wait and watch.
Film & TV Markets
This is a good time for Film and TV betting with ‘The Jump’ and ‘The Voice’ about to hit our screens, plus awards season in Hollywood.
BBC’s ‘The Voice’ may hit our screens this weekend but it is all pre-recorded fodder until the Spring. For now only the likes of ‘gender of the winner’ and ‘winning manager’ markets are available and there is no value to be found.
As for ‘the Globes’, from the moment nominations were announced on December 11th ‘Boyhood’, a coming-of-age drama film, has been long odds-on favourite to win the showpiece Globe for the ‘Best Drama Motion Picture’. The film, which was filmed intermittently over an eleven-year period from May 2002 to October 2013 and shows the growth of a young boy and his older sister into adulthood, is a best-priced 1/6 (William Hill & Skybet) to be given the award.
If that’s not a get-rich-quick price, what about the 1/12 on J K Simmons collecting the award for ‘Best Supporting Actor’? 59-year-old Simmons has already collected 19 awards for his role in ‘Whiplash’ (most noteworthy of which is the LA Film Critics Association Award) but with ‘Boyhood ‘likely to sweep a plethora of awards, Coral’s 33/1 about its representative in this category, Ethan Hawke, might be worth a few pennies. Even the 8/1 about Ed Norton (for his role in ‘Birdman’) appeals. Norton has so far been awarded nine accolades for his part in this movie and, in 1996, collected this very same ‘Best Supporting Actor’ Golden Globe for his debut film Primal Fear.
Countdown to Cheltenham
Elsewhere, Prestbury Park Cheltenham to be precise, the countdown to the 2015 Festival is truly on. All of the main protagonists are either going straight there or are taking in just one more run.
The World Hurdle looks one serious box of broken biscuits. Last year’s runner-up, Annie Power, is under a serious injury cloud and if she gets to Cheltenham there is no saying what race she will go for. Oh the irony of Paddy Power going 7/2 about her for this race with a run (others 12/1) and 10/11 (ante-post rules) about her for the Mares Hurdle (others 6/4). Last year’s winner, More Of That, looked like a seriously unfit horse on his seasonal reappearance and was later reported to be in need of a breathing operation. It had all the hallmarks of a well laid-out coup and I could easily envisage him being an even more authoritative winner of the 2015 rendition. That was until Jonjo O’Neill’s yard went under the darkest and most dismal cloud. This has always been a stable boasting a dubious strike rate and top-end results, considering the size of the string and financial resources, that have been numerically disappointing but right now it cannot buy a winner of an egg-and-spoon race. It calls for the search of a viable value alternative, a horse with no question marks that is available at a double-digit price. That encompasses every runner still in the race apart from the Jonjo runner.
The trouble is the one horse with Festival and recent course winning form that has to appeal, Rock On Ruby (14/1 with Ladbrokes), is 10-years-old. In this race’ 42-year history only one winner, Crimson Embers in 1986, was aged over nine! I don’t know what the answer to this puzzle is but, ironically, it looks like a race that you have to play.