May to Survive Brexit Fallout

Clearly, within the Conservative Party, a lot of brown stuff has hit one of the whirly things we are currently using to keep ourselves cool.

Paddy Power have got themselves all over political betting in a hurry.  The crafty company know full well what headlines they can snatch following the resignations of Brexit Secretary David Davis, Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson and Junior Minister Steve Baker within the space of 24 hours.  As usual a lot of their betting markets are hideous – 33/1 Boris Johnson to ‘be caught on camera dancing/singing to Robbie Williams at the World Cup 2018 closing ceremony’ being a prime example.

However 5/4 about Theresa May still being Prime Minister on 1 April 2019 looks fair.

In order for Theresa May to go she needs to resign, which looks a 33’s poke, or be ousted.  To be ousted she needs to lose a leadership contest.  For there to be a leadership contest there needs to be a no-confidence vote.  And for there to be a no-confidence vote, 15% of Tory MPs must write to the chairman of the backbench 1922 Committee (currently Sir Graham Brady) seeking one.  As there are 316 Conservative MPs in the House of Commons, 48 letters to call a ballot must be delivered to Sir Graham Brady.   Then, and only then, would voting begin.  And if the Conservative party gets to that point, I personnally feel Theresa May will secure the 149 votes she needs to hold her position.

But with UK politics in the state its currently in, who knows what tomorrow might bring.

Twitter