Shane Lambert looks ahead to the French Open Tennis and he is suggesting a small win bet on Nicolas Almagro at 600/1.
Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, and Andy Murray are the top-three favourites for the quickly-approaching 2016 French Open (qualifiers start next Monday). The trio really do provide a bit of a betting conundrum for someone looking for value following the results of the Madrid Masters. However, what I'd like to focus on in this article are the longshots, players outside of the Top-10 favourites. No Djokovic, no Nadal, no Murray, no Roger Federer, no Kei Nishikori, no Stan Wawrinka, no Dominic Thiem, no Gael Monfils, no Milos Raonic, and no Nick Kyrgios. The players outside of that list that I think are interesting are some of the recent titlists on tour in the minor events.
Philipp Kohlschreiber, for instance, won Munich and he's 500/1 with BetVictor. Nicolas Almagro won Estoril and he's 600/1 with 888Sport. Juan Monaco won Houston and he's 800/1 with the same sportsbook. In my opinion all three of those players are under-rated at the odds available on them.
But when it comes to peripheral players like these three you have to know how to play your futures properly. You do hope that lightning strikes and they win the tournament, but you don't actually need that to happen to exploit a line that's left too long. What I mean by that is these players are all more like 70/1 to 300/1 longshots as opposed to the odds that they've been given.
For instance what if you put a 1-unit bet on Monaco at 800/1 and he ended up in the quarters of the French in a match that he probably would not win? There's lots of things you can do in situations like these.
One thing I recommend situationally is using short betting lines against him to start some parlays. For example, if he was against a 1/5 favourite in the quarters then you could take that line in a treble or Trixie or Canadian or Yankee or whatever. If Monaco wins then the 800/1 line gets more equity. If Monaco loses then you're one step into a parlay. I call this 'forking' a result and I recommend doing it when you’re really long betting lines get juiced up.
Between Kohlschreiber, Almagro, and Monaco my strongest inclination is with Almagro. Kohlschreiber is a cut below both players in terms of talent while Monaco is not as talented as Almagro. Furthermore, Monaco was a major underachiever in Grand Slams, even during his heyday. Almagro, who made the French Open quarters a few times and shoulda-coulda-woulda won his 2013 quarter at the Aussie, still has some Top-20 game I think and he could put a dent in the French Open draw again.
0.5 point win Nicolas Almagro at 600/1 with 888Sport