Roy The Boy previews the Oscars and he has bets on Best Original Screenplay and Best Documentary - Short.
Oscar runners are in the Paddock
Oscar betting markets are slow maturing and, because they are conventional punter vs bookie scenarios with limited betting turnover, they rarely offer much value. But, like a horserace on the Betfair Exchange, all of the meaningful wagers are placed just prior to the off time.
It’s almost off time with the Oscars now. The runners and riders are confirmed, the horses are in the parade ring and there will not be much market fluctuation from this point on.
Now, the biggest shit with the Oscars is the inability to put some selections into multiple bets. For example if a film has a representative in ‘Best Actor’ and ‘Best Director’ you cannot do a double on any selections in these two categories. But as the lines and prices in a number of these high-profile Oscar categories are bang on the money, this is of little concern.
Short-priced Oscar acca?
There are loads of awards you can bet on, 24 to be precise. It is amongst these were there could be some value. There’s a 1/33 poke in ‘Makeup and Hairstyling’, 1/25 jolly in the ‘Best Animated Feature Film’, 1/7 for ‘Sound Editing’, 1/12 for ‘Adapted Screenplay’. I suppose you could string these together and receive 1/3 about your money. Alternatively you can check yourself into the Priory.
Get Out – Get It?
You may need an advanced degree in four subjects to understand all the content on the excellent showbiz award prediction site goldderby.com but what is coming across clearly is the 2018 Oscar for ‘Original Screenplay’ is likely to go to ‘Get Out’.
In what is a three-runner race (‘Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri’ and ‘Lady Bird’ being the others) 12 of the site’s 30 experts put this movie on top and a dozen others make it second best.
Using a similar method of deduction (and sites like awardswatch.com) ‘Heroin’ looks over-priced at 11/4 for the ‘Documentary Short’. ‘Faces Places’ is top-priced 2/5 here but our selection ranges from 5/2 (11/4 with the shrewd Paddy Power) to as big as 11/4.
Original Screenplay - Get Out at 5/4 with Paddy Power and Ladbrokes
Documentary Short - Heroin at 11/4 with Paddy Power