The Bears, Jaguars and Chiefs for Week 7 Success

Jimmy McGinty has 3 bets again this week in NFL Week 7 and they are on the Bears, the Jaguars and the Chiefs.

After a good Thursday Night in week 6 I got the Cardinals all this week!! No Thursday Night Football bet next week. 

Week 6 – The Falcons covered, Vikings pushed with a 10pt win but unfortunately a sloppy Colts display cost us the treble. Now +5.2pts .

It was hard to make picks this week…. 

I kind of like the Saints +3pts. The Ravens pass-rush destroyed Tennessee last week. However, compared to Tennessee, the Saints have a better and more experienced QB behind a strong OL and options (Kamara) to get the ball out quickly. The Saints are off a bye. The worry – it’s outdoor on the road. Brees is better at home and/or indoors. And I’ve got the Ravens wrong more than once this year!  

I also like Detroit -3pts. They are off a bye whilst the Dolphins are coming in off a tough overtime game. A game they were blessed not to lose by double digits. The Lions with a better OL and top 5 DL will dominate in the trenches as well. The worry – it’ll be hot in Miami, it stopped the Bears winning down there last week.  

I also like the Jets +3.5pts. This is the 3rd road game in 4 weeks for the Vikings. They’ve just lost a starting corner-back Mike Hughes and the Jets have had plenty of success on deep balls to wide receivers.  The Vikings may also be looking ahead to the big NFC clash with the Saints next week. Pre-Eagles (another big NFC clash) they lost to the Bills with an incredibly flat performance. It could be windy for this game which makes scoring more difficult and to me makes the side getting points more appealing. The doubts - Do the Jets have the pass-rush to take advantage of the weak Vikings offensive line and NYJ have a few injured cornerbacks which Minnesota may exploit.   

I think Washington Redskins are a superior side to the Cowboys so at 10/11 pick ‘em I should be taking the Redskins at home. If you ignore the night game in New Orleans where the effort was bad; the Redskins have been pretty good. They played far better than the scoreline suggested against Indy and dominated against the Cardinals and Packers. But Crowder and Richardson are out whilst Thompson and Peterson are questionable. That’s a lot of key pieces to be banged up. 

Jacksonville didn’t turn up at all last Sunday – Dallas are not that good! They’re traditionally an overrated side – it’s even worse now. If the Redskins shutdown Zeke like they did McCaffery (20yds on 8 attempts) the Cowboys will struggle to move the ball. Cole Beasley was on fire against the Jags but the Redskins have a decent slot-corner. However, Sean Lee returns from injury and the Cowboys record in Washington (won the last 5yrs) is terrific. So after all that – no bet.  

I can understand the Giants (+4pts) love on Monday Night Football. Matt Bryant is a big loss for the Falcons and with Sanu and Ridley also struggling to get fit the Falcons high-powered offense might just slowdown a little. The lack of a pass-rush with ATL will give Eli plenty of time, something he hasn’t had much of in their opening 6 games. Barkley is also far better than any of the Falcons backup linebackers and safeties who’ll be trying to stop him. But still 4pts is a little tight in my eyes. Atlanta are very good at home and despite all their injuries are still a better side than the Giants.  

Picks: 

Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs (-6pts) 

This is not a great time to be on the Chiefs, their hype-train is at full speed. However, I think there’s still a bit of value in this spread at just -6pts. They return home after playing 4 of their opening 6 on the road. They won the two home games by 11 and 16pts. The Chiefs offense are averaging a massive 36pts per game. Slowing them down has proved too much for everyone and this Bengals defense (missing 2 starts in Vigil & Dennard) ranks quite lowly on many metrics – there is no way they’ll shutdown the Chiefs offense. Allowing for the Chiefs defense being equally awful - this spread should still be a touchdown or more. 

Kelce is a far better tight-end than Vance McDonald who just had a big outing versus the Bengals. Based on the outing James Conner had, Kareem Hunt should also dominate when given the ball. The Bengals were blessed to beat the Dolphins after trailing 17-0 and their defeat of Atlanta isn’t as good a result as it looks – the Falcons D was at it’s very worst that week. When they beat the Ravens it was a game where Baltimore lost their star defender CJ Mosley in the opening quarter. The Bengals aren’t anything special. 

The slight worry with taking Kansas City’s side – after getting up for the Patriots teams often put in a flat performance.   

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-4pts) 

The Jags didn’t turn up at all last Sunday. An awful level of effort. Looking for excuses - it was their second road game in two weeks and an out of conference clash as well. The week before their inconsistent QB Blake Bortles was as bad as he gets. Now after those two bad displays are we to believe they are a bad side? Or will they bounce-back and deliver a few strong performances? I’m, perhaps foolishly, believing in the latter. 

Versus the Texans is a good matchup for the Jags. The Texans offensive line is the worst in the league. Deshaun Watson is getting hammered every week. The Jags have serious talent in their pass-rush; they’ll get to Watson a lot and hopefully generate a few turnovers. 

Houston were lucky last week. Had Josh Allen not got injured (13-13 when he did) the Bills may have beaten them. And the Bills are awful. Before that the Cowboys and Colts both took them to overtime and the Giants beat them. If the Jags turn up they are far superior to all those sides. 

Playing from the front where they force opponents to chase the game (didn’t happen in either of their recent two losses) really suits the Jags strengths (lean on defense making plays and simple passing/run game). They should be able to get ahead of Houston and coast home. 

New England Patriots at Chicago Bears (+2.5pts) 

New England just had a key win and now are on the road for an out of conference game with a divisional rival up next weekend. An obvious low-spot on their schedule. Can the Bears take advantage? +3pts would be far more appealing but I’m still taking Chicago! 

The Patriots have enjoyed home advantage in 4 of their opening 6 games but interestingly lost the other 2. The Bears do have a solid home advantage and will be eager to bounce back after a poor showing in Miami.  

The heat was probably a big factor down there as the Bears defense looked to be running on empty after half-time. But for some dodgy officiating, fumbles and a red-zone interception the Bears would’ve won by 14pts – they’re a better side than this result indicates. They also should’ve won in Lambeau and then took care of 3 bad sides, Tampa emphatically. I think they’re still a good side firmly in the underrated pile. 

The Patriots offense has really been rolling since they added Gordon and got Edelman back but now they face a top 5 defense; a big step up on recent opponents (Miami didn’t turn up, Indy D was missing a lot of starters, Chiefs D is awful). Interestingly Chicago are the league leader in preventing running back receptions – a key part of the Patriots offense with James White. For the Bears Trubisky has been impressive the last two weeks and will face very little pressure (Patriots D ranks last in sacks) so should be able to have a decent game and keep up with Brady and co.  

Advised Treble:

1pt treble Bears +2.5, Jags -4, Chiefs -5.5pts (6.3/1 SkyBet) 

 

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