Jimmy McGinty previews NFL Week 10 and he has bets on the Browns, Dolphins and Seahawks.
Saints at Bengals
I want to take the Bengals as this is a massive let-down spot for New Orleans. After a big statement win verses LAR; an out of conference road-game; with another big clash versus PHI up next. The Bengals are traditionally a great home underdog and at 5-3 are still bang in playoff contention. They also come in off a bye but their injury list is ridiculous this week. Burfict, Vigil, Green & Dennard are all out. 4 key starters. If it moves to +6pts I’ll have a small play on Cincinnati but not now…
Patriots at Titans
Something similar applies to the Titans getting points versus the Patriots. If the spread gets up to a touchdown I want TEN onside. They could’ve beaten the Chargers in London and then did win in Dallas. This TEN side is decent and probably a touch underrated by most. The Patriots lost their first two road games and nearly slipped up with versus Bears – they’re vulnerable here.
Week 10 - It’s underdogs week for me
Miami Dolphins (+10pts) at Green Bay Packers
The Packers are another side in a bad spot. Post Patriots with a road trip to Seattle up next Thursday, they face an out of conference opponent that they’ll be taking for granted.
The Packers are overrated – I’d have this spread closer to 7 or 8pts; +10 Miami is very appealing. Green Bay have only won 2 of their last 6 games – against the Bills and 49ers (which was close). The Dolphins can definitely stay within 10pts.
Buluga, King, Daniels and Martinez, all key players for the Packers, are on their injury report this week. They might play but won’t be 100%. Meanwhile the Dolphins appear to be getting guys back rather than losing them this week as their injury report had been a very long list the past few weeks.
You can run on the Dolphins but that’s traditionally not a strength of the Packers, nor something they try to do regularly. Why would you when you have Rodgers at QB I suppose. Xavien Howard will shutdown Davante Adams and the other Green Bay receivers are not yet reliable offensive talents. Miami, in what might be a low scoring game, can keep it tight.
Atlanta Falcons at Cleveland Browns (+6pts)
The Browns played without top linebacker Joe Schobert the past two weeks. Safety Damarius Randall sat out last week and they lost top cornerback Denzel Ward early in the game on Sunday as well. All 3 look likely to be back in the starting line-up on Sunday and as a result the Browns defense should step up as a result. Occasionally Matt Ryan can be turnover prone so this opportunistic Browns defense (top 3 in both interceptions and forced fumbles) might have a few big plays in them. Outdoor on the road isn’t ideal for Ryan who has put up big numbers in their dome. This is only their 4th road game in 10 weeks (they lost the first 2).
Atlanta, after a 1-4 start, have won 3 on the bounce but they were home games versus Bucs and Giants and against a Redskins side who were riddled with key injuries. I’m not certain they are truly back on track. Giving up 6pts on the road is a lot!
The Browns are the Browns, they’re a badly coached side with a rookie QB. They’ll find a way to make a mess of things but at home 6pts is a decent head-start. They are not an awful side. They were competitive early in the season but won only 1 of 4 overtime games and then faced the red-hot Chiefs and Steelers in their last two games. This is also the first full week the new coaches have had to prepare for a game – I think they’ll put in a good showing.
Seattle Seahawks (+9.5pts) at LA Rams
Despite their high-scoring 8-1 record the Rams have only covered the spread 4 times. They’re not spectacularly ahead of the opposition. Their defense was torched last week. That was a big game for them and they have another one in Mexico next weekend, so the Seahawks arrive at a good time (for the Seahawks). Green Bay and Denver both got within a field-goal of the Rams and some of their big wins were versus bad San Fran, Arizona & Oakland sides. Seattle are talented enough to keep pace with Goff & co.
Only 2pts separated these sides in week 5. In fact 5 of the last 7 meetings between these sides have been decided by 6pts or less despite the talent levels often varying drastically. For a divisional game, with the Rams having a very limited home field advantage, +9.5pts is a nice Seahawks bet.
1pt treble Browns +6pts, Dolphins +10pts, Seahawks +9.5pts