Jimmy McGinty previews NFL Week 15 and he has bets including the Tennessee Titans, Detroit Lions and the Miami Dolphins.
Week 14 recap – After the winning fivefold (+33pts) the previous week, last weeks attempted six-fold was possibly a little too ambitious!! But we’ll try again. It was just about a breakeven week with Texans, Jets and Titans winning. The 3pts on the Chargers had no chance after they suffered numerous key injuries early on.
Lots of opinions, a few key bets and a lots of small bets this week. Titans, Dolphins and Lions against the spread will decide the weekend.
Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs
Last Thursday was perfect for the Chiefs. They built up a strong lead which allowed them to lean on their running game and defense. They also faced an injured QB who performed dreadfully. In addition they scored a punt return and still only won by one score. They are slight overrated after last week’s key win, it wasn’t too impressive when broken down. Last week they struggled to contain Latavius Murray. The Murray they face this week, DeMarco is a better running back. He’ll have a big game for Tennessee. The Titans have a bad secondary but are strong against the run. This is a good matchup for them as the Chiefs won’t be able to expose the weaklinks, similar to Denver in Tennessee last week really.
In a good matchup both on offense and defense against an overrated opponent I really like the Titans with a 6 point head-start.
4pts Titans +6pts at 10/11 with Betfred, Coral, Paddy Power and Skybet
Detroit Lions at New York Giants
Matt Stafford dislocated his finger last week but he continued on and performed ok so the signs are positive. Derek Carr struggled badly with a finger injury last week but it was in cold weather, this game looks like it won’t be too bad weather-wise. I was against the Giants last week (have been a few times recently) and want to be again this week. It’s a good matchup for the Lions. Darius Slay can certainly slowdown Beckham while the Lions defensive front can get at Manning who has been under pressure all season. The Giants have averaged 263yds on offense for the past three weeks, 31st in the league! This matchup doesn’t appeal as one where they’ll boost those stats.
The Cowboys weren’t very good last week, possibly the worst Prescott has played so I’m not giving the Giants as much credit as others. The Lions are better than the Giants despite sharing a 9-4 record. With a 4.5pt head start I love them this week.
5pts Lions +4.5 pts at 10/11 with Betfred, Coral, Paddy Power and Skybet
There are 5 other teams I can make a decent case for so let’s stick them in a small accumulator.
Tampa Bay Bucs at Dallas Cowboys
I mentioned above that the Cowboys weren’t very good last week. Well they haven’t been superb for a few weeks to be honest. They were lucky to beat Minnesota. One team who have been performing well of late is the Bucs. Their defense has been playing championship winning football the past few weeks. The Cowboys have nobody that can match Mike Evans and they give up plenty of receptions to tight-ends so Cameron Brate will help the Bucs move the chains also. This spread looks very big.
2pts Bucs +7pts at 1/1 with Skybet
Panthers at Redskins
I was against the Panthers last week but after San Diego suffered numerous key injuries the Panthers had it easy really. It’ll be different when they face the Redskins however. Kirk Cousins has been shredding weak secondaries all season. He faces a bad one here. At home I expect Washington to put up a big number and cover a 6.5pt spread
1pt Redskins -6.5pts at 10/11 with Skybet, Betfred and Coral
Raiders at Chargers
As mentioned the Chargers lost many key men to injury last Sunday. Melvin Gordon the most important. With their playoff hopes dead I wouldn’t be surprised if they quit a little and throw in a stinker. The Raiders have got to win after losing to the Chiefs last week. Derek Carr can’t possibly be as bad again (the warm weather will help him) and Khalil Mack should dominate against a weakened offensive line.
1pt Raiders -2.5pts at 20/21 with Bet365 and William Hill
Colts at Vikings
The Vikings have been a low-scoring team all season. Covering a 4pt spread regardless of opposition is a tall ask. The opposition here are also well capable of putting up scores. The Colts met a Texans D last weekend that were not in the mood for defeat. The Vikings are good but Andrew Luck should find this a little easier. Lamar Miller also dominated in that game for the Texans but the Vikings don’t have a fit running back of his calibre. This matchup is better for the Colts and they can keep it close if they don’t win outright.
2pts Colts +5 pts at 19/20 with Boylesports
Steelers at Bengals
This is the Bengals Super Bowl. They’ve very little else to fight for this season bar bragging rights with their rivals from Pittsburgh. The Bengals have also been performing very well for the last few weeks, especially on defense. It’s possible the Steelers will have one eye on their important Ravens clash next week. If they do they’ll get a surprise this Sunday!
1pt Bengals +3pts at 21/10 with Paddy Power
1pt five-fold Raiders, Redskins, Bucs, Bengals, Colts
And then there’s a few teams I can make a case for but just don’t want to back…
Browns at Bills
I could make a case for the Browns this week. The Bills are out of the playoffs and could lack motivation. RG3 may improve from last week having been injured for a few weeks. But they are the Browns so thread carefully!!
Patriots at Broncos
I don’t like the Broncos much. Their QB is average at best, have two less than average running backs and a defense that struggles to stop the run. Yet they have had the Patriots number in Denver quite regularly so won’t fear them at all. Without Gronk and with Edelman facing top cornerback Chris Harris, Brady will struggle to light it up. So maybe the Broncos are the right play in a likely low-scoring affair. If only I liked the Broncos offense a little more.
San Fran at Atlanta
The Falcons scored half of their points last week on special teams. They won’t repeat that. With Julio Jones and Mohammed Sanu either out or less than 100% fit the Falcons may struggle to put up a big score. Covering a 14pt spread may be too much but would like to back the 49ers?!
Eagles at Ravens
The Ravens are very good against tight-ends which will serve them well here as the Eagles use Zach Ertz a lot. This Ravens defense has been very good in recent weeks. They had Brady’s Patriots well wrapped up for long periods last Monday night. They should have no trouble with Caron Wentz. Wentz had a good game last week but it was only after the Redskins lost key defenders to injury.