Jimmy McGinty has a second preview this week and he likes the unders in 3 matches in Miami, Detroit and Jacksonville.
In addition to the six against the spread picks in week 14, three other games jump off the page as ‘unders’ this week.
Arizona Cardinals at Miami Dolphins
The Cardinals stop the run which immediately hinders Miami’s chances of moving the chains regularly. Miami are also missing starting centre Mike Pouncey so Tannehill will be under immense pressure from the Cardinals pass rush. When facing strong defences Miami have only scored 6pts (last week v Ravens) and 14pts (three weeks ago v Rams).
However the offensive line issues will be seen on both sides during this game. Palmer has lacked protection all year so the Cardinals will have no answer to a strong Dolphins pass rush led by Suh and Wake. The Cardinals have been bad on the road all year also.
If you’re looking at the specials markets - the Dolphins gave up a big day to Ravens TE Dennis Pitta so look for Jermaine Gresham to have a big day for the Cardinals. He has gradually become a big part of their passing game.
1pt under 43.5pts total at 10/11 with Betfred and Coral
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions
The Lions have won 5 of their last 6 games but have only scored more than 20pts in 3 of them. They’ve averaged just under 21pts through the 6 games. Last week’s game against New Orleans was the highest scoring, it had a total of 41pts. The Saints have a weak D, the Bears don’t so I expect Staffard and co to land around the 20pt mark again.
The Bears are similar enough to the Lions in scoring terms just they aren’t winning a whole lot of games! 4 of their last 6 games had a total of 38 or less. The Bears have a miserable enough offense but their defense is strong; it’s underrated.
The total of 43.5pts looks a shade high for both of these sides matching up.
1pt under 43.5pts total at 10/11 with Stan James and Bet365
Minnesota Vikings at Jacksonville Jaguars
We successfully tipped a low scoring affair last Thursday when the Vikings faced the Cowboys. With their strong defense and pathetic offense the Vikings are always likely to be involved in a low-scoring affair. This week they face the Jags. The Jags are 2-10 for the season but arguably have as good if not better a stop unit than the 11-1 Cowboys.
The Vikings are great against the pass and only average against the run but luckily for them the Jags have a terrible running game. I’m not sure how the Jags will score and the Vikings may actually score more with their defense than offense this week. Either way I’d be amazed if the game total goes above 39.5pts with two stellar D’s and chronic O’s.
1pt under 39.5pts total at 19/20 with Coral
1pt unders treble on the 3 games above, works out at 6/1
A few other notes on teams we’ve recently been successful with:
The Steelers have been beating up bad teams (Browns, Giants & Luck-less Colts) with no running game recently. That changes this week when they face the strong running Bills. I imagine it’ll be high-scoring as the Steelers offense looks the real deal at the moment but having won money on them the last 3wks I’d be wary picking them in Buffalo this week.
The Bengals are done for this year but surprisingly they haven’t quit. In fact they were possibly at their very best last weekend, especially on defense. They will limit the Browns in what could be a relatively low-scoring affair. A bet may be the Bengals defense to score. The Browns regardless of who starts at QB have been a fumbling, interception throwing mac