Jimmy McGinty previews Week 11 of the NFL and he has bets on total points in a few games and some touchdown scorer and player yardage bets.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns
The Steelers have now lost 4 in a row to drop to 4-5. However they are only 1 game behind the divisional leaders, Baltimore, and with an easier upcoming schedule they should still make the playoffs. And they’ll be a dangerous team there too.
This week they are in a risky spot. Traditionally they’re not a great road team and the Browns are battling for their first win and they’d dearly love it to be against their rivals from Pittsburgh. Whilst I fancy the Steelers to have a very strong second half to the season, the best bet this week is for a high-scoring affair rather than a cover against Cleveland.
Big Ben was fully fit for the first 5 games and they went 4-1. He got injured against Miami (who’ve since played very well) and wasn’t fully fit in his comeback game against the Ravens. Last week they lost to the league’s best team (currently anyhow, Dallas are) in a game where the Steelers missed 4 PAT.
With Big Ben, Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown fit the Steelers are much much better than a 4-5 team. They will rack up some huge scores and beat many teams over the coming weeks. Unfortunately the team lost their best defender in Cameron Heyward last week. He’s out for the season. This just means they’ll concede a little more and force the offense to score a little more – ideal for an overs bet.
3 points win Over 44.5pts total points at 20/21 with Ladbrokes
The good work of Evan Silva over on rotoworld has inspired a few touchdown and yardage special market plays this week. Weekly he posts about how teams match up against each other statistically. If you’re an enthusiastic NFL Fantasy Football player you could do worse than check out some it. The first bet is in the match above.
Eli Rogers is a clear no.3 in targets (behind Brown & Bell) since Big Ben returned from injury. He led the Steelers in receiving in week 9 and scored a TD when catching 4 of his 5 targets versus Dallas last week. The Brown’s meanwhile have really struggled against slot receivers giving up big yardage and TDs to all of Cole Beasley, Quincy Enunwa, Kendall Wright, Jarvis Landry, Jordan Mathews and Steve Smith. In a likely high-scoring game I’d be amazed if Eli Rogers doesn’t continue his growing role in the Steelers offense. Back his yardage total and to score a TD.
2pts Eli Rogers anytime TD at 12/5 with Ladbrokes
Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings
Quite the opposite of the Steelers Browns affair this game screams as being low-scoring. Carson Palmer has struggled this year, even last weekend against the miserable 49ers. He’s badly missing Veldheer and Mathis, two of his best offensive linemen. Similarly Sam Bradford is going through a very poor patch. The Vikings haven’t scored more than 20pts in 5wks. And now they also have O-line issues. The Vikings lost left-tackle Jake Long last week which will be a big issue against the strong Cardinals D. Both pass-rush defences will be well on top against already struggling offenses - so back the unders.
3pts win - Under 40 total points at 10/11 with Coral and William Hill
Larry Fitzgerald has had at least 6 catches in his last 5 games and at least 70yds receiving in his last 3 games. He’s not playing like a 33yr old! At first glance the Vikings is a difficult matchup. They have a strong defense, but it’s really out wide they are very strong. Against tight-ends they have conceded at least 92yds in each of their last 3 games. Ok Larry Fitz isn’t a tight-end but he runs TE routes for a team that don’t use TEs. He’ll be the go-to guy for an under pressure Carson Palmer. In a game unlikely to hold many touchdowns there’s far better value in backing him to score the first than to score anytime.
1 point win Larry Fitz - First TD scorer at 12/1 with Coral and William Hill
2pts win Larry Fitz Over 60.5 receiving yardage at 5/6 with Paddy Power
New England Patriots at San Fran 49ers
Julian Edelman has caught only 1 TD all season. He caught at least 3 for each of the past 4 seasons including 7 last year. Order will soon be restored. He’s coming off his best game of the season where he took his 7 receptions for 99yds against Seattle. This week he faces the miserable San Fran defense, who just surrendered 12 catches for 133yds to another interior/slot receiver Larry Fitz last week.
With the Patriots projected to score 30 odd points this is an ideal matchup for Edelman to play a big part.
2pts win Julian Edelman - Anytime TD at 11/10 with Coral and William Hill
2pts win Julian Edelman - Over 62.5 receiving yards at 5/6 with Paddy Power