Jimmy McGinty season previews of the NFL looks at the 2018/19 Regular Season MVP Award
An interesting piece from the guys at Rotoworld (well worth checking out for all things NFL, especially Fantasy Football) on MVP history tells us 10 of the last 11 winners were QBs and last year despite Todd Gurley breaking the 2,000 total yards barrier he was outvoted 40-8 against Tom Brady; who didn’t have an amazing year. So, it’s 100% QB for me, ignore all the rest.
Interestingly 8 of the last 11 were the QB with the most wins and being either (or both) the passing yards (3/11 winners) or passing TDs (3/11) leader would help considerably also. So, who’re they likely to be?
Most wins: Brady, Wentz, Big Ben, Goff, Rivers, Cousins, Ryan, Bortles, Brees, Rodgers
Most yards: Brees, Brady, Rivers, Big Ben, Stafford, Rodgers, Jimmy G, Ryan
Most passing TDs: Rodgers, Brady, Wentz, D Watson, Rivers, Big Ben, Brees, Wilson
I want to be against Brady as he has lost many weapons and the Pats may lean on their D a little more this year. Just today Isaiah Wynn got injured, their OL is average at best now.
Bortles won’t play well enough. I fancy the Jags for 10+ wins but not because of their QB.
Brees, despite the Ingram suspension, will still be controlling a run heavy offense. Although he’d be a popular choice for votes if in contention.
Cousins and Goff are operating on teams with decent run games and high quality defences so they won’t need to put up magic numbers. I’m not sure either are capable anyhow to be honest.
I fear Roethlisberger won’t stay fit for all 16 games, he usually doesn’t, and having never won this award is unlikely to in the twilight of his career. A top tight-end or 3rd WR would really help him.
The likes of Jimmy G (bad roster), Russell Wilson (no OL), Derek Carr (not talented enough) and Cam Newton (awful passing stats) won’t win enough games. I’d be surprised if DeShaun Watson thrives behind the league’s worst offensive line. What we saw of him last season was unsustainable. Andrew Luck has an awful lot to prove after being off for so long.
So, down to five. Rodgers, Stafford, Wentz, Rivers or Ryan.
Stafford should’ve got eliminated on the games won stat, but I suspect, with an average running game and facing some good sides, the Lions will need to put up a big number of passing yards and TDs. Some of it may be garbage time yards but they all count. I like the 2019 Lions and he’s a massive price so makes the bottom of the list.
I’ve Rodgers pencilled in for the least number of wins amongst the remaining 4. And facing good defences in the Bears and Vikings twice as well as road games in New England and LA Rams won’t make it easy. Even if he is the greatest QB around. I’ve had a nibble on Davante Adams (12/1) to have the most receiving TDs which somewhat covers the Rodgers angle here.
I fear Rivers will use Melvin Gordon to punch in a lot of TDs now that his red-zone target Hunter Henry is injured but I also suspect the Chargers will be electric this season, so he still makes the list as no.3.
Wentz is a little shorter than I would’ve hoped, coming back from an ACL he’s a risky enough bet. The Eagles have a good D and running options, so he may not need to set the place alight either. He’s still a super talented guy controlling the best roster in the League so warrants a few quid.
Matt Ryan has shown he and this Falcons offense can do what’s required to top the NFL and take home this award, so he gets the nod to lead selections. Operating behind a strong offensive line and with two decent running backs, a talented tight-end and receiving trio of Jones, Sanu & Ridley this Falcons offense could easily look like the high-powered 2016 version.
1.5pt Matt Ryan 20/1 Betfair
1pt Carson Wentz 10/1 Paddy Power
0.75pt Philip Rivers 33/1 William Hill (50/1 with Marathon Sports if you can get it)
0.25pt Matthew Stafford 40/1 Coral