Jimmy McGinty looks at the best bets in the Regular Season Most Receiving Yards market.
2018/19 Regular Season Most Receiving Yards
First a warning - Receiving Yards is a tricky market. Antonio Brown has had four top 2 finishes in the past 5yrs. Julio Jones has cracked the 1,400 mark for a top 3 finish each of the past 4yrs. Picking one of the two or alternatively trying to get both beat isn’t easy.
Historically to squeeze into 3rd place you’d want a minimum 85 receptions to hit 1,400 and the top spot will be 1,650 yards. There’s only about dozen who have any chance of getting those numbers.
Antonio Brown – the one to beat and with the Steelers D looking a little weak there’s no reason he won’t be just as busy. Roethlisberger getting hurt or regressing are the key concerns.
Julio Jones – The Falcons offense has added another talented receiver which may have a negative impact on Julio. He is however the best receiver in the League, on a high powered offense, it’s so hard to be against him.
Keenan Allen – 3rd last year, injuries always a worry and there may be more options in LA if Mike Williams gets going. Good defense and a strong running-back don’t help his case. I prefer him in the TD scoring markets.
DeAndre Hopkins – a massive QB upgrade (for 10 games), an easy schedule, not much depth at WR or TE and an average run game in Houston. He’ll be the focal point of every attack and they’ll have a lot of them. He had 1,521yds in 2015 with Brian Hoyer under centre.
Odell Beckham – Eli is really bad, the schedule is tough and there’s a star running back who’ll need a lot of touches. Unless Engram or Shepard become dependable Beckham will be double teamed regularly.
Michael Thomas – Will lead the Saints in targets and receptions which gives him a chance but hard to see them moving away from the strong run game they used last year. He’s had two very strong seasons as Brees’ main man and didn’t top 1,250.
TY Hilton – can Andrew Luck play 16 games? And will he play them like the Luck of old? When TY won this tile in 2016 it was with a low total. The AFC South games will pit him against tough defences.
AJ Green – might go close if the Bengals get it together (I think they will). An improved offensive line, John Ross fit and stretching the field and Joe Mixon a genuine threat will help AJ avoid double coverage. Over 1,000yds 6 of the last 7 seasons and his lowest totals came when not playing 16 games.
Mike Evans – will play plenty of top defences on a tough schedule. And he must share targets on a deep offense. There’s also QB and coaching issues in Tampa.
Doug Baldwin – Has averaged just over 1,000yds over the past 3 seasons. Now he’s the true no.1 receiver though. Arguably the only receiver even! There is a major lack of WR, TE and RB options in Seattle. Where they’ll be required to chase games regularly and he’ll play with a top QB. Lining up in the slot more often than not he’ll avoid the best CBs (Talib, Peters, Peterson, Sherman) in his Division.
Thielen & Diggs hurt each other in Minnesota like how Tate & Jones do in Detroit. Davante Adams has never cleared 1,000yds although is of interest in the TD markets. Gordon and Landry hurt each other and must work with a rookie QB in Cleveland. Tyreek Hill will still have to surrender a lot of receptions to Travis Kelce. Demaryius Thomas looks to be regressing and Amari Cooper is hard to fancy after a really bad season.
Note Paddy Power are win only and WilliamHill are ¼ odds 4 places
1pt win DeAndre Hopkins 12/1 – Paddy Power
0.5pt e/w Doug Baldwin 50/1 – Betfred
0.5pt e/w AJ Green 18/1 – William Hill