Lewis Hamilton is on a roll. He’s won five of the last six Formula 1 races and turned a 43 point deficit to a six point advantage in the World Championship standings.
So it is easy to forget his teammate, Nico Rosberg, has won an equal number of races during the current season. What’s more, the German won the final three races of 2015 and has amassed an amazing sequence of 17 consecutive front-row starts.
Given these facts should Hamilton really be an 8/11 shot for race victory this weekend in Germany? And Rosberg as big as 5/2? We say no and we have a two-fold argument to support our belief.
Firstly, Lewis Hamilton has used up his season-long allocation of turbo chargers and heat generating units. He did so in Austria meaning he has raced the ones currently installed in his car three times. The next time he changes either part he will be slapped with a 10-place grid penalty. These parts changes are an inevitability, it is just a case of when. It could be this weekend that the Englishman has to bite the bullet. The Hockenheim circuit is demanding on machinery after all and those parts could cry ‘enough’ in any of the three practice sessions not to mention qualifying.
Secondly, this is the German Grand Prix and regardless of all the hype surrounding the team’s claim that “our drivers are free to race” the German manufacturer knows few things will be as beneficial to their sales figures as a German driver winning at this German circuit in a German car.
Who knows, given this would be a good race for Rosberg to win, possibly the team will also declare it’s a good time for Hamilton to take all those parts and that grid penalty and be done with it.
When you also consider Rosberg won this race the last time it was staged (in 2014), then surely the plain and simple truth is that he must be backed to win again this weekend at standout odds of 5/2 with William Hill & SkyBet.