Hungarian Grand Prix can see Button excel

Roy The Boy has already flagged Fernando Alonso for the Hungarian Grand Prix, but he thinks Button also represents value for a Top 6 finish.

Advised Bet

1 point win  Jenson Button Top-Six finish Hungarian Grand Prix at 2/1 with Ladbrokes and Paddy Power 

The Commonwealth Games get underway this week and, just like the Olympics, they get the swimming out of the way as quickly as possible.

Athletics is obviously the only thing worth getting remotely involved in.  The Marathons are staged on Sunday while Track and Field events get underway on Monday.  However, punting value looks thin on the ground and the ability to place sizeable bets could be troublesome.

While the London Marathon has been something I’ve done a lot of stats on, I am generally very blind on Athletics and rely on those who are much wiser, and subsequently richer, than myself.

Those judges tell me Nickel Ashmeade has a 75 percent chance of winning the showpiece 100 metres so he rates a play at 32Red’s 4/6 quote.  Other ‘good things’ are Kirani James in the 400 metres and David Rudisha in the 800 metres.  Sadly their 1/4 and 1/2  quotes correspond with their true chances.

With Van Gerwen looking so strong in the World Matchplay Darts and Valverde seemingly safe for a podium in the Tour de France (advised at 28/1 each-way) this is an exciting week of sport.  I define an ‘exciting week of sport’ as by anything I can bet on with what I conceive to be an edge.

And another edge has popped up in this weekend’s Hungarian Formula 1 race.  I know I have already advertised Fernando Alonso’s credentials and for the very same reasons – the tracks unsuitability to the Williams’ and reliability issues amongst others. However that does not mean that there are not other good prices lurking and I think Jenson Button is over-priced at 2/1 (Paddy Power & Ladbrokes) for a top-six finish.

Button loves the Hungaroring, winning here twice, once in an unspectacular Honda (2006).  Additionally his McLaren team have recently changed the cogs in his gearbox lowering the ratios making it more suitable to this kind of ‘sprinters circuit’.

His car was good enough for a double-podium in Australia (a similar course).  It’s also been reliable enough to complete every race this season and claim five top-six finishes from the ten races of 2014.  All in all, it makes his 2/1 quote very fair and it will do for me as a second bet in the race.