Ferrari Can Set Barca Fastest Lap

Roy The Boy previews the Spanish Grand Prix and is keen on Raikkonen or Vettel producing the fastest lap given the likely dynamics of the race.

A Ferrari for a late stop and that should mean a fastest lap

In an ideal world I’d simply be happy laying Hamilton in the fastest lap market for Sunday’s Spanish Grand Prix.  The trouble is, Betfair will probably be short on liquidity and while all the fixed-odds firms will give you evens about him going fastest, they would not offer you any price about the reigning world champion NOT taking the accolade.  To me, it’s a flaw in their business model.

Hamilton is two from four in the ‘fastest laps’ stakes this year but this weekend the action comes from Barcelona and this front runners track is capable throwing up some weird results.

Fastest Laps 2015

Australia                                 Lewis Hamilton                   on Lap 50 of 58

Malaysia                                 Nico Rosberg                       on Lap 43 of 56

China                                      Lewis Hamilton                    on Lap 31 of 56

Bahrain                                   Kimi Raikkonen                   on Lap 42 of 57

Just consider… not a single pole-setter or race winner has set the fastest lap at this race/venue since 2008.  The reason is probably the volatile nature of this circuit where teams may have to take as many as four pit-stops dues to its demands on tyres.

Additionally overtaking is extremely difficult.  The net result is often fast cars stuck behind slow cars and if you cannot get a clear run of things you cannot set a fast lap.

Barcelona Results

YR       STAR  FINISHERS      POLE                           WINNER             FASTEST LAP

2005        18         13                     Raikkonen                   Raikkonen               Fisichella

2006        22         17                     Alonso                          Alonso                      Massa

2007        22         14                     Massa                          Massa                       Massa

2008        20         13                     Raikkonen                  Raikkonen               Raikkonen

2009        20         14                     Button                         Button                      Barrichello

2010        24         19                     Webber                       Webber                    Hamilton

2011        24         21                     Webber                       Vettel                        Hamilton

2012        24         19                     Maldonado                 Maldonado               Grosjean

2013        22         19                     Rosberg                      Alonso                       Gutierrez

2014        22         20                     Hamilton                    Hamilton                  Vettel

Therein the Ferrari team are sure to bring some team-play into action, splitting the strategies between their two cars/drivers meaning one may be left on-track for a long first stint while the other pits early in the race. In essence ‘tripping-up’ their rivals by sticking them in traffic. This is what the Italian team did in Bahrain last time when a late pitting Raikkonen went on to set the fastest lap and claim second spot.

I’m expecting more of the same and if one of the Ferraris pits late in the race – after the Mercedes’ take their last pit-stop – they will claim the ‘fastest lap’ accolade.

With the team not deciding who will employ what strategy until after qualifying, I’m suggesting backing both drivers at combined odds of 7/2.

Advised Bets:

1/2 point win      Kimi Raikkonen at 6/1 Fastest Lap with BetVictor and Betfred

1/2 point win      Sebastian Vettel at 6/1 with BetVictor and Ladbrokes

 

Twitter