Make Money in Monza

After setting the pace in Belgium last weekend, Roy the Boy believes Vettel will secure another victory at the home of Ferrari this weekend.

Another Vettel Victory

Of course there is no fan like an Italian Ferrari F1 fan and they will go wild should Sebastian Vettel manage to give the Marenello-based team its first victory in their home race since 2010.

A Mercedes has won here for five of the past six seasons and, since 2011, the winner of the Belgian GP (a similarly hyper-fast circuit) has also taken the race victory at Monza five times. That’s Vettel in 2011 and 2013, Hamilton in 2015 and 2017, Rosberg in 2016.

That bodes exceptionally well for Sebastian Vettel who breezed to victory in Belgium, unchallenged, by over ten seconds. He cannot be opposed and must be backed at 10/11 with Paddy Power to take his sixth victory of the season.

Lots of Finishers Expected

There is an outstanding bet in the early exchanges for Sunday’s Formula 1 race from Monza, Italy. It is in the 'Total Number of Finishers' market.

This being the most straight-forward of all circuits, with long fast straights and run-off areas at the very few turns, the finishing numbers are always high here. In fact, 2012-2015 saw just two non-finishers per-race. In 2008 there was just one non-finisher and 2007 was another year when exactly two cars failed to make 90% of the race distance (which deems a car to be an official finisher).

Statistically Monza is the safest off all circuits underlined by the safety car not being deployed in any race here since 2011 and finishing numbers, since 2010, being: 20-15-22-20-20-18-18-18.

William Hill’s 6/4 offer about ‘over 15.5’ finishers is clearly a mistake. That’s based on historical facts and, by contrast, Bet365 is quoting 10/11 about the very same outcome.

Stats Suggest No Safety Car

Only four of last 18 Monza Grand Prix featured a Safety Car. Like we say above, it’s not been needed in any of the last six years.

On the back of that, SportingBet's even-money about the ‘NO’ scenario is a more-than-fair proposition.

Recommended Bets

Sebastian Vettel to win the Italian Grand Prix @ 10/11 generally.

Over 15.5 in the Number of Finishers market @ 6/4 with William Hill

No Safety Car @ 11/10 with SportingBet