Lonesharkoy previews the Ulster Senior Football Championship quarter final clash between Cavan and Monaghan from Breffni Park.
Cavan vs Monaghan, Ulster SFC
Cavan’s difficulty in raising green flags during the National League was well publicised. However their meagre haul of one goal in seven league starts masked the fact that the Breffni County did a lot of things quite well during the Spring.
Only Offaly conceded fewer than the 73 scores that were converted against Cavan, and the Faithful County had the benefit of facing some toothless opponents in division four.
Gearóid McKiernan is playing some excellent football at midfield; there is incredible athleticism and power throughout the middle third, and they have some excellent man markers in their full back line also.
However this Sunday’s fixture represents a huge step up in class and frankly, it’s a surprise to see the bookies pitch the game so close. Monaghan have just held their own in Division One company and that’s nothing more than consistent with their form in recent seasons. They are very clearly the sixth best team in Ireland right now and while there isn’t anything hugely sexy about the way they go about their business, their approach gets results. They will defend in numbers, they will look for Conor McManus early and often, they will win more than their fair share of frees and they will convert a high percentage of those opportunities.
That might not necessarily be enough if they have to take on Kerry or Dublin later this year, but it will bring them a long way against anyone else and it certainly should do the job against a Cavan team that is painfully short on ideas close to goal. It’s hard to see anything other than a Monaghan win here and 8/13 is quite kind about a team that would win this match at least seven out of ten times.
The majority of bookies have also quite accurately assessed no Cavan goalscorer as an odds on shot. Boylesports are laying 6/5 about under 0.5, which also looks like decent value. Split your stake between these two options for a little added security.
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