Roy The Boy looks ahead to the Monaco Grand Prix and he likes the prices on Kim Raikonnen and Max Verstappen not to finish the race.
Bet365 have done their sums wrong on the Monaco Grand Prix.
You have to dig deep but their faux-pas is on the market about drivers to NOT finish the race.
The stats state, roughly speaking, one car in three will not see the winning line in Sunday’s race. That’s because Monaco leaves no margin for error with its narrow street course barrier-lined configuration determined to wreck a car that makes just meagre contact with it. Furthermore it is very easy to get caught-up in someone else’s wreckage.
Watching the opening practise session, where there were incidents galore, I suspect the attrition rate will be greater than 33% this weekend but that is based on conjecture and not on historical data.
There’s reason to believe the Mercedes have a greater chance of not being involved in incidents – they should be comfortably leading the race after all – but taking them out of the equation makes the statistical probability of other cars meeting a grizzly end even greater.
The two, at the prices, I like are Kimi Raikkonen and Max Verstappen. Both are 10/3 in Bet365’s ‘NOT to be classified’ market. Raikkonen has failed to finish in three of his last nine races and recorded DNF’s in over 25 percent of his races last season.
Verstappen, meanwhile, planted his car in a wall here last season and his exuberance following a maiden victory in Barcelona last time may well be a curse. That was certainly the case for Pastor Maldonado who recorded his first victory in Spain in 2012 and followed up with a crash here in Monaco the next time out.
If I were a bookmaker I’d not be prepared to offer greater than 7/4 about either of this pair failing to finish. So, as a punter, I have to recommend the 10/3 on offer about them.
Max Verstappen to NOT be classified in the Monaco Grand Prix at 10/3 with Bet365
Kimi Raikkonen to NOT be classified in the Monaco Grand Prix at 10/3 with Bet365