Monaco Grand Prix 2018 preview – Go against the favourites

Monaco Grand Prix preview and Roy The Boy and he has bets on number of finishers, safety car and Hamilton not to win.

Who can you trust at Monaco?

The full betting markets for Sunday’s Monaco Grand Prix have opened up and there are some huge betting opportunities to be had.

Arguably the sport’s showcase race, this 78-lap contest is not the bedrock scraping examination machinery that it should be.  But drivers are tested to the full alright and many of them cannot be trusted not to put their car into a wall at some stage of proceedings.

Where value lay

All the value surrounds what many would conceive to be unlikely outcomes.  Given the nature of this narrow, twisty, bumpy and low-speed venue the form worth of the Spanish Grand Prix – won by Lewis Hamilton by over 20sec – can be thrown into the Mediterranean.  But the Brit’s manor of victory last time is indelible and that’s why he is trading way too short.

Hamilton is our first ‘lay’.  You can back him NOT to podium at 5/4 with Bet365 or hope some liquidity appears on Betfair and lay him for a place on their Exchange.

And he’s not going to podium here (hopefully) as his car will struggle around this undulating wall-lined dog track.  Unquestionably the Red Bulls will like this challenge more than any other circuit we have visited in 2018 while the Ferrari’s will love the warmer weather that’s forecast for the weekend.

Safety car could remain parked

Now this bet could shit the bed within 10sec flat but it is still over-priced.  The punt is on NO safety car being called into play.  I know it has been in each and every one of the last eight races here but a bigger sample size shows it has stayed in the garage 25 percent of the time since 2002.

Last year it was not called for until lap 60.  In 2016 the race started behind a safety car (voiding your bets on it being used with most bookmakers) and it was not called for again.  2015 nearly went ‘safety car free’ but was brought into play late on, lap 64.

Everything considered – and that includes a ‘fine’ weather forecast – 6/1 about it not being deployed is simply too big.

Safety in Numbers

On a similar theme, the lines on the number of finishers are definitely out.  In the last 12 years only twice has less than 15 cars been classified as finishers (14 in 2014, 14 in 2008).

Betfred are going 10/11 about there being 15 or more (14.5+) finishers on Sunday, it’s a snip.  And Bet365’s 2/1 about there being 16 or more finishers is also wrong.  This bet would have been a winner in four of the last seven Monaco GP and overall the stats indicate it should be 11/8.

Recommended Bets

Hamilton NOT to ‘podium’                            5/4       Bet365

No Safety Car                                                6/1       William Hill

14.5+ finishers                                               10/11  Betfred

16 or more finishers                                      2/1       Bet365

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