Jezki looks overpriced in Lismullen Hurdle at Navan

Ceebee previews the Lismullen Hurdle at Navan and he has an each way bet at a big price on Jezki.

13.35 Navan 

2m4f Lismullen Hurdle 

Apples Jade was driven right out to give 7lbs to Jers Girl in this race last year – also her seasonal debut. Jers Girl is a low-140s mare who has done nothing since. Apples Jade will need to do more 12mts on. She’s 9 from 15 over hurdles in UK/Ire but amazingly 4 of the 6 losses were off the back of at least an 80 day break. She’s takes work to get fit so is vulnerable today. Other negatives – she obviously lost her sparkle in the spring when beaten at odds-on at both Cheltenham and Punchestown. Some of the time/speed rating guys haven’t thought much of many of her winning efforts either. 

Dortmund Park probably wants it softer and over further. His Punchestown G1 win was a messy affair with plenty of flops in behind – I don’t rate him too highly. Conceding weight because of that G1 win makes it very difficult for him here. 

Coney Island has plenty to prove after last season and his connectins won’t be bothered if he just hacks around for a solid 3rd place.  

Arctic Fire won this in 2015 but has had two long injury breaks since and also left the Mullins yard – hardly a positive. He was poor when beaten in a weaker G3 last time so is hard to fancy today. 

Identity Thief was bang average on 4 of his 5 runs last season. And stink the season before. I just can’t trust that Aintree win. Happy to oppose until he shows something again at this sort of level. 

Jezki has won on 3 of his 4 last seasonal reappearances. The one he didn’t win was versus Hurricane Fly. He goes well fresh and will love the decent ground. This is probably his best trip, always was. I’m happy to ignore the 3m efforts last season. He won a G3 first time out, met a quality Faugheen next time and also ran well in the AIG. On that day he finished closer to Mick Jazz than Identity Thief did at Cheltenham. He easily won a conditions hurdle in March. Sure, Jezki isn’t a 160+ champion hurdler now but he’s not done either. With everything in his favour and a vulnerable odds-on favourite I’m happy to play each-way at 14/1. 

Advised Bet

1pt e/w Jezki 14/1 with Betfair and Paddy Power

Related Previews

Twitter