Tweener previews Day 4 of the Mens Singles at the US Open and has bets on Tipsarevic first set and overs in first match and Karen Khachanov to give Nishikori in the second match.
Janko Tipsarevic v Pableo Carreno Busta
1 pt win Tipsarevic win 1st set v Carreno Busta at 13/8 with Bet365
1pt win Over 37.5 games at 5/6 with Bet365 and Betfred
2 in form players battling it out in this 2nd round match.
Carreno Busta had just won a title last week and Tipsarevic is showing signs of revival. The first round victory over Querrey wasn't totally unexpected given his title in the challengers recently. It seems his serve is back along with fitness and confidence.
This should be a fairly close match and I believe Tipsarevic should shade it if he is fit enough for a 5 setter. He has the bigger weapons on court and the match will be on his racquet. To win the 1st set price eliminates the fitness from the equation and is a better bet than the match price.
I have also tipped up the overs here since I believe there will be a momentum shift in a best of 5 match involving 2 in form players. There is no h2h to speak of, the major fear with the overs bet is potential fatigue for one of the players given their exertions in their previous tournaments.
Kei Nishikori v Karen Khachanov
1 pt Khachanov win 1st set at 6/1 with Ladbrokes and William Hill
1 pt Over total games 29.5 at 1/1 with Betfred and Ladbrokes
Not many people have heard of Karen Khachanov, but this guy can play. He has got a big game enough game to trouble Nishikori if he isn't completey switched on. The bets advised are first set and over total games.
- The first set price is far too big for a player of his ability and Nishikori should have trouble to adjust his game initially.
- The over games line is 29.5 is also fairly low. This can be covered with a straight set victory which is what the bookmakers are expecting. I expect Khachanov to give Nishikori a good battle in one of the first 2 sets before Nishikori experience becomes telling.
- The potential downside is Khachanov is a ball striker. If he has an off day, they can land everywhere but inside the court. It's unlikely given he has had 4 matches here already, but he has not had to play a player of Nishikori calibre who will get a lot of "winners" back.