Italian Grand Prix Preview – Slender winning margin likely

Roy The Boy previews the Italian Grand Prix and his bet is on the race winning margin.

Italy’s winner is not likely to be in punishment mode

Forget the race winner, pole setter, podium finish and all other conventional markets when looking at the weekend’s F1 race from Monza, Italy. Simply head straight to the ‘winning margin’ market and ‘go low’.

Betfred and Bet365 are going evens and 5/6 respectively about the race winner having a buffer of less than 5sec, just like it has been in five of the last eight races here.

The 2004 and 2005 Italian GP’s were won by 2.6 and 1.3sec. 2007 saw Alonso score by 6.0sec.  In short, winners here do not win by far; it is motorsports equivalent to Leopardstown.

But this season, an era when teams face grid penalties for excessive engine component changes/replacements, winning margins have been small.  Only three times has a winner scored by more than 10sec, the other nine races have been won by 6.6sec or less of which seven have been won by less than 4secs.

One presumes in instances of a team finishing 1-2, there has been a degree of ‘holding station’ resulting on less engine stress and those smaller winning margins.  But the last race in Belgium was a scrap, a dogfight between Hamilton and Vettel, and it resulted in a 2.3sec winning margin.

Suffice to say we believe the price is wrong and a 4.99sec or less winning margin is worthy of a good bet at or around the even-money mark.

Recommended Bets

Race Winning Margin                     under 5sec                1/1 Betfred

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