Frazzled looks ahead to Sunday's card at Leopardstown, which is Day 3 of the Christmas Festival.
Leopardstown 12:20 - At The Races Maiden Hurdle
This looks to be a 2.5 miles maiden hurdle that concerns two horses, with all due respect to the rest of the field including Okotoks and Pack The Punch.
Snow Falcon has the best form over hurdles in the book, by virtue of his 2nd to Milsean over 2 miles at Navan last month. The form has received a boost, with Space Cadet winning the bumper at this venue on Stephens Day, but Ordinary World was disappointing behind the very exciting Alvisio Ville on the same card. In addition, Milsean is a horse that is crying out for a lot further than 2 miles, so by finishing so close to him in the end, Snow Falcon may be given more credit for the performance than we are prepared to hand out. He has a solid overall profile by virtue of this effort and his second to Valerian Bridge at Down Royal, which followed his bumper win at Fairyhouse. However he does not appear to be top class on the evidence so far and he displayed some quirks in that bumper field. At the odds, we are prepared to take him on.
The horse that we like in this contest is Identity Thief and while he has it to prove yet, he looked like a very high class horse when winning his bumper at Fairyhouse on Hattons Grace day. As they turned into the straight in this contest, Tully East looked to have poached a winning advantage and Identity Thief was certainly not well placed near the back of the field. However when David Roche asked him to quicken, the response was extremely impressive, as he came clear from the main pack and then also seemed to find an additional gear as he passed Archive and then the front running Tully East. This had all the hallmarks of a top class bumper performance, especially given that he is bred for stamina. While the form has yet to be really tested, there were some big reputations on the line in the race and if he was in any other ownership, it is likely that he would be heading to the Cheltenham bumper and would be heading the market, or challenging the Mullins horses for favouritism.
The testing ground should not pose a problem for him, while it may not be ideal for Snow Falcon and while he would have been the selection if this was over 2 miles; there is no reason to believe that he will not be as effective over this additional half mile. Henry De Bromhead has his horses in excellent form, as advertised by the wins of Special Tiara and Sizing John yesterday and his horses are generally so well schooled that there is little to fear from an inexperience point of view. Identity Thief rates a strong bet for us here.
Recap - Advised Bet: