Postulation can land the “Weld” maiden

Teaplanter looks at the 2 year old maiden on the Galway card and believes that Dermot Weld can win yet another renewal despite the Aidan O'Brien trained Jamaica being favoured in the market.

Galway 6:10 - Claregalwayhotel.ie EBF Maiden

This race has been a Dermot Weld benefit over the years, although Aidan O'Brien has interrupted this domination with wins in 2007 and 2010 via Lucifer Sam and Robin Hood.

O'Brien has supplied the clear favourite in two of the past three years and he had the joint favourite last year, but each of these renewals went to the Master of Rosewell House. It could be the same story again this year as Ballydoyle once again has the favourite with Jamaica heading the market on the strength of his very promising 3rd to his stablemate Gleneagles in a 7 furlong maiden at the end of June. The son of Galileo stayed on nicely under quite a considerate ride from Seamie Heffernan and he in fact finished 3 places ahead of the Weld representative in this contest, Postulation. With the Ballydoyle trained horses generally improving for their debuts, Jamaica is many pundits idea of the winner today, but there looks to be some solid reasons why Postulation can reverse the form of that Curragh race.

Postulation is a son of Harlans Holiday out of a Dansili mare who won the fillies' maiden at this festival in 2006. He is a big horse that looked in need of the experience at the Curragh and was ridden along to hold his position on the rails in the middle of the race last time. However he seemed to be learning his trade all the time and he stayed on very nicely in the final furlong, without Pat Smullen asking him any type of question. He obviously has to improve to reverse form with Jamaica, but the last 3 winners of this for Weld stepped up considerably on their debuts to land this prize. Both Riviera Poet and Thunder Mountain improved on average debuts and Mustajeeb last year also improved significantly on what was quite a promising Curragh debut behind Sir John Hawkins. We would be confident that Weld left quite a lot to work on with Postulation and we could see a vastly improved performance from this colt.

At the current prices he rates the value, but it will be interesting to see if there is market support for him closer to the off, as this would cement our confidence in him.

Advised Bet:

1.5 points win Postulation at 7/4 with Ladbrokes and Bet365

 



 

 

Galway 8:15 - Colm Quinn BMW Flat Race

Dermot Weld has supplied the favourite for this concluding bumper for the past two years. Last year Marty's Magic was not good enough to beat the useful Wicklow Brave and in 2012, this year's Champion Bumper winner, Silver Concorde came up short against the very useful Cul Baire.

Weld again saddles the red hot favourite in Call Vinnie. The 5 year old was pulled up on his debut in the point to point field at the Horse and Jockey in March, but he was a different proposition next time at Templemore, when he sat off the pace and then quickly moved to the pack between the last two fences to run out an impressive winner. That was a very weak race however and while he could prove to be very useful, he looks short enough at 11/10.

A common feature of the eclipse of the Weld horses for the past two years, is that Patrick Mullins was on the winner and we are siding with him again this year. It may be unlikely that Old Storm will prove to be as good as either Wicklow Brave or Cul Baire, although he looks very much a stayer. However he looked a useful prospect when winning on his second run in points at Ballinaboola. He made all the running in this contest and jumped and galloped relentlessly to the line. The form looks decent with the runner up finishing second in a Fairyhouse bumper in April and Old Storm was much the best on the day. He was subsequently bought by Shark Hanlon and races in the Mee colours. These connections always like a tilt at Galway with some of their nicer horses and Old Storm will certainly be tuned up for this race. Given the manner of his win last time, it is very possible that Patrick Mullins will make the running here and he will try and draw the sting out of Call Vinnie, with the stiff finish playing to his strengths.

Flight Plan and Lucky Pat look the only other contenders , but at the prices, Old Storm is the selection to overturn the favourite.

Advised Bet:

1 point win Old Storm at 9/2 with William Hill and Coral

 

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