Baino Hope looks good value at Longchamp

The Dark Horse looks to France on Saturday and he has a 5/1 shot that makes plenty of appeal at Longchamp.

Longchamp 1.30

Advised Bet

1.5 points each way Baino Hope at 5-1 with Bet365 (1,2,3 ¼ odds)

The Qatar Prix Chaudenay is the opening race at Longchamp on Arc weekend and Jean-Claude Rouget looks to have a great chance of gaining a first success in the race with Baino Hope.

The Jeremy filly has been performing well throughout the season and is continuing to improve. Having won on debut at Toulouse, she finished 2nd twice at Tarbes and Bordeaux, beaten fairly short margins on both occasions.

Since that Bordeaux defeat, Baino Hope has won all 3 of her races and she has impressed since being stepped up in trip to 3000m, the distance over which she races here. At Deauville 2 starts ago she easily defeated 6 rivals, showing a sharp turn of foot in the straight having raced prominently throughout.

Stepped up in class last time to Listed company, she raced over that same C&D in the Prix Michel Houyvet, this time on soft ground. Having been positioned on the inside in mid division for much of the race, she tracked through Auvray into the straight before being moved into the clear. She showed a rapid turn of foot to quickly get upsides and past that rival before staying on well to win by 3 lengths.

The ease with which she breezed by a very good horse in Auvray was impressive and that turn of foot mixed with the ability to stay 3000m is a useful combination. That turn of foot could be particularly crucial in this race where there isn’t an obvious front runner and it could turn into a relative test of speed for the distance.

Her form is progressive and she beat 2 of her rivals today last time in Doumaran and Auvray. Those have since run well in a Group 3 at Longchamp (Auvray won, Doumaran 4th having been hampered late on).

Doumaran is one of two entries for the Aga Khan. He is talented but doesn’t look the easiest ride. Vazira looks the first string and she would be an obvious danger if able to see out the 3000m trip. She has looked short of pace over shorter trips in higher grades but it could be that she was being outclassed there rather than not having much speed.

Glaring and Auvray are 1-1 when facing each other this year, with short margins separating them on both occasions. Both take a while to hit top gear and a slow pace could be against them.

Kaldera won the Deutsches St Leger last time and she is another who has improved since stepped up in trip. She is another who I think would be suited by a decent pace and I’m not sure that’s going to happen.

While the other 2 3yo fillies, Vazira and Kaldera, are strong challengers, I think they might lack the necessary turn of foot to be successful in this race given this could be slowly run before turning into a relative sprint. Therefore, Baino Hope looks a solid each way option at 5-1.