Trends & Tips for Kentucky Derby & 1000 Guineas

Roy The Boy looks towards some relevant stats and trends for this weekend's big races to highlight a few picks of potential interest.  

Trying to find the winner of Saturday’s Kentucky Derby or Sunday’s 1000 Guineas?  Here’s a few stats to consider …

Kentucky Derby

Since 1986 only one horse has won from stall/post 1, 2 or 3.  So strike out Firenze Fire, Free Drop Billy and Promises Fulfilled.

Since 1957 only one horse has won the Kentucky Derby despite being absent from the track for more than 42 days. Therein put a line through Noble Indy, Bravazo and Lone Sailor.

Charismatic, in 1999, was the last horse to win the Lexington Stakes and then the Derby.  Not good reading for My Boy Jack Fans. Similarly Funny Cide was the last horse to ‘prep’ in the Wood Memorial – giving Vino Rosso fans cause for doubt.

The Blue Grass Stakes has served as the final prep race for 23 Derby winners but just only one since 1995. That’s Good Magic accounted for!

Finally on this theme, no horse has won the Derby without previously winning a graded stakes race since Giacomo in 2005.  Strike out Hofburg from your list.

Remarkably trainer Steve Asmussen has never trained a Kentucky Derby winner from his 18 runners.  He saddles Combatant this year.

The last horse who won the Derby without racing as a two-year-old was in 1882. So the stats are very much against joint favourite, Justify.

Here’s the most pertinent of all stats. The last six Kentucky Derby winners went into the race unbeaten as a three-year-old. That’s closely followed by the fact 7 of the last 17 Kentucky Derby winners have won the Florida Derby en-route to Kentucky Derby glory. So despite the fact that only one New York-bred has ever won the Kentucky Derby, it’s Florida Derby winner Audible for me at a whopping 13/2 with Betway.

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The 1000 Guineas

The 1000 Guineas is a lot more difficult to unravel from a statistical viewpoint. Group 1 winning form as a two-year-old was once vital. But we have seen a mixed bag in recent years meaning there is no definitive guide as to where the winner will come from.

That’s apart from the Aidan O’Brien factor of course. He has produced the winner of the first fillies classic for the past two years, three times in the last six years and four times in total. Given the strength and depth in the Ballydoyle yard, and the ability for conceived third and fourth strings to win major races (last year’s 1000 winner, Winter, was a third string), it might just prove prudent to play O’Briens' Sizzling and Sarrocchi each-way at 33/1 apiece with William Hill.

William Hill

For those interested, a brief profile of previous 1000 Guineas winners highlighting their best two-year-old achievements shows:

2017:  Winter                                      Maiden race winner at Dundalk

2016:  Minding                                  G1 winner as a two-year-old at Newmarket

2015:  Legatissimo                           Listed race winner as a two-year-old in Gowran Park

2014:  Miss France                          G3 winner as a two-year-old at Newmarket

2013:  Sky Lantern                          G1 winner as a two-year-old, G3 placed at Newmarket

2012:  Homecoming Queen         Raced 11 times at two, beaten first 7 starts, just two wins

2011:  Blue Bunting                         Listed race winner as a two-year-old at Newmarket

2010:  Special Duty                         G1 winner as a two-year-old at Newmarket

2009:  Ghanaati                              Twice raced at 2, winning a maiden on second start

2008:  Natagora                             G1 winner as a two-year-old at Newmarket

2007:  Finsceal Beo                       G1 winner as a two-year-old at Newmarket

2006:  Speciosa                              Twice a Group 2 winner at Newmarket

2005:  Virginia Waters               One win and listed placed from four starts at the Curragh

2004:  Attraction                           G2 Newmarket winner, unbeaten in five starts at two

2003:  Russian Rhythm              G1 runner-up at Newmarket