CeeBee previews Gowran Park on Saturday and he has bets in the Red Mills Chase, Red Mills Hurdle and the four year old hurdle with Smashing, Bentelimar and Oiche Mhaith Boy.
Gowran Park Saturday
Red Mills day in Gowran is traditionally the second biggest day at the track after Thyestes Day in January. Whilst that’s still probably the case the standard of racing on Red Mills day this year looks fairly woeful. Past winners of the hurdle include Solwhit, Hardy Eustace, Macs Joy and Un de Sceaux. There’s nothing of that calibre this time. There is however a few opportunities to make a few quid.
2.15 Red Mills Chase
This is a 3 horse race. Fine placing of Glenwood Forever to pick up over €2k though. The trio are rated 147, 149 and 149 so officially there should be nothing between them. The 147 rated Smashing also carries a 3lb penalty, so whilst he looks the worst off I think he’s by far and away the most likely winner.
Smashing is 2 from 2 this season, both times on heavy and once over C&D. This is an ideal test for De Bromhead’s inform chaser. He has always been a good horse, perhaps just below G1 level, but if you focus solely on his soft/heavy ground form it reads 19321311. Some of the placed efforts were behind Un De Sceaux and Don Poli. He’s fairly solid here. And importantly his two rivals are not.
Ballycasey didn’t get home in the Thyestes, so this trip will suit better, of that there’s little doubt. In proving that; he did have a hard race. There’s also a ‘best fresh’ element to him I believe. He has won 6 times, 5 of them have come after a 60 day break. He was odds on in a 5 runner novice hurdle the sixth time. Last season he won first time out before his form tailed off completely.
Morning Assembly ran a fine race in what was his first start for 18 months when 2nd at Fairyhouse last month. He may bounce or he may come on for the outing, but either way I’d be against him here. At his best (which it’s hard to believe he will be today) he wasn’t a whole lot better than Smashing is now. To be seen at his best he needed a trip; 2m4f is not his optimum.
4 points win Smashing at 6/4 with Bet365
3.25 Red Mills Hurdle
Sempre Medici really should be winning this. He has at least a stone in hand on all his opponents. The best bet is in the without market (or a SFC with Sempre Medici). It’s a match bet.
I much prefer the chances of Bentelimar to Sizing Tennessee. When last seen Bentelimar was 6th in the Pierse hurdle. He got a very aggressive ride attempting to make all in a race that generally suited the hold-up horses. In was a fine effort against more unexposed sorts, to whom he conceded weight all around. With Rory O’Moore in the race today, Bentelimar will not be forced to do the donkey work.
Sizing Tennessee is rated 1lb lower than Bentelimar – at half his price the betting here doesn’t suggest as much. Sizing got a smart ride from Johnny Burke last time. He got first run on his opponents. It also helped that chasing him was an absolute pig in Bright New Dawn. Cliffside Park was also on their tails as they crossed the line. He’s rated only 128 – I don’t believe the form is that strong. The only price available at the moment is with Paddy Power at 6/4, but we may get better on Saturday morning.
3 points win Bentelimar (w/o fav) at 6/4 with Paddy Power
4.00 4yo Hurdle
This is not the type of race I’d ever pay huge attention to, but one locally trained 4yo caught the eye. Oiche Mhaith Boy for Kieran Purcell is 20/1. Over course and distance on his hurdling debut he chased home Footpad and Lagostovegas. Ok he was well beaten at the finish but he travelled to the last alongside both of them. That’s better form than the majority of these have. He was woeful next time at Thurles, but that was surely too bad to be true. If that hadn’t occurred he’d be a single figure price on the back of his debut. None of those at the head of the market look like world-beaters.
0.5 points each way Oiche Mhaith Boy at 20/1 with Paddy Power, Coral and William Hill