Shane Lambert looks at the Ladies Singles in the French Open and he likes big prices about Irina Camellia Begu, Sam Stosur and Shelby Rogers.
Sam Stosur, who is into the 4th round of the 2016 French Open, has a little bit in her game right now than what we've normally being seeing out of her in recent seasons. The former US Open champion, in what is now the late stages of her tennis prime, will contest the second week of a major for only the 2nd time in the last eight slams. She's staying nice and long with a lot of sportsbooks too, even following a win over last year's runner-up.
Stosur, a one-time runner-up from Roland Garros, took out Lucie Safarova in the third round on Friday. That puts the Aussie into the middle round against Simona Halep, the 2014 runner-up and current second favourite to win this year's tournament. However, even with Halep and 2nd-seeded Agnieszka Radwanska still alive, there's nobody on the bottom half of the draw that is really "lights out" right now. That means that the longshots are more into the tournament than what their odds suggest in my opinion.
Stosur remains at 50s with both Paddy Power and William Hill, meaning that she's at 25s when it comes to each-way betting (place 1-2). To win three matches I think that the Aussie is more like 10 to 1 with Halep the biggest threat to her on the bottom half of the draw.
I also think both Irina-Camelia Begu and Shelby Rogers have more in their game than what their betting odds suggest. Begu has been big on tour for a couple months now while Rogers has proven over the last few days at Roland Garros that she's ready to play in bigger matches than she has up to now.
You can still find Begu at 66s with SportingBet while Rogers is out at 250s with Betway. The two players will meet in the fourth round and those with a negative attitude might point out that that guarantees that one of them will be out. However if the glass is half full then it also guarantees one of them will be into the quarters and two events away from hitting an each-way bet at pretty long odds and with winnable matches given that Serena's on the opposite side of the draw.
If you want to iron out a couple bets then between Stosur, Begu, and Rogers I would actually just live and die with Begu, someone I tipped at 200s on May 16th. She's the one that's been consistently winning clay-court matches recently and I'm not surprised at all to see her into the fourth round of Roland Garros with a good shot at the quarters.
I think there's a moment of truth coming for this player soon against a big player in a big match and I'd rather be on her side at long odds than on the favourite at short ones. With a draw through Rogers, maybe Garbine Muguruza, and then no one better than Radwanska an appearance in the finals for the Romanian is certainly achievable. If you take all three players listed below my recommendation is to weight things so the main bet is with Begu while Stosur and Rogers are more like insurance bets.
2 points each way Begu at 66s with SportingBet
1 point each way Stosur at 50s with Paddy Power
0.75 points each way Rogers at 250s with SportingBet