Frazzled previews Friday at Cheltenham and he has bets including Soldier in Action on St Patricks Day.
This looks a fiendishly difficult Triumph Hurdle, not least because the strong favourite has done all his winning on deep ground and could be vulnerable under these faster conditions. With the watered ground producing times that were quite a bit slower than expected on Thursday, conditions will still be on the soft side, but Defi Du Seuil looks worth taking on at the prices of 9/4.
Charlie Parcs seems highly regarded and was impressive first time, but the ground might actually be a little on the slow side from him and after a rather laboured effort before coming to grief at Kempton. Mister Blueyes looks a big enough price to confirm form with him, but I am staying away from that form.
The Irish form does not get the pulse racing either although this stiff track should play into the hands of Mega Fortune and any showers that fall before racing will be a welcome bonus for him.
However we will side with the 105 rated flat handicapper Solider in Action. He has appealed as a hurdler since he won at Doncaster last April and he progressed nicely through the season for Mark Johnston. He has raced twice over hurdles and improved significantly for his debut when he was an impressive winner last time at Doncaster. That form does not look too bad after Diable De Sivola was 5th in the Fred Winter and on a line through that form, we could argue that Solider in Action should be a 140+ horse at the very least. The 28/1 with Paddy Power looks on the big side and he should relish this stiff test, with the lack of too many hurdles in the final 6 furlongs helping to ease some inexperience concerns.
1 point each way Soldier in Action at 28/1 with Paddy Power and Betfair Sports
It must be the continued sipping of Pilsner Urquell that is doing it to me, but I find myself for the first time ever, not only willing to believe that Renneti will start a race, but that he has an outstanding chance in one. Every man and his dog was talking about how well handicapped Tombstone was on Wednesday, yet Renneti runs off the same mark here, finished ahead of him at Naas and looks a horse that has been laid out for a race run over the same course as when he ran so well back in November 2015 behind Old Guard.
He was crabbed for his finishing effort last time behind Sutton Place, but he finished ahead of Supasundae and that form looks ok after the latter won the Coral Cup on Wednesday. Phil Smith has him on the same mark as he is in Ireland and we know how badly handicapped the rest of the Irish have been, when he has given them a higher rating. In addition Renneti travelled supremely well in the contest in which both he and Tombstone finished behind Jezki and if he can be held on to as long as possible (other than when the tape rises!!), he appeals as a horse that could come to the last tanking and it is a question of whether he will go through with his effort up the hill.
Nothing in the race appeals as being particularly well handicapped and on a going day Renneti could easily be better than a 149 horse. The removal of headgear is a concern, but at 14/1 with a few firms, he looks worth a bet. Given that it is St Patricks Day and he might not be that well backed, there is every chance that the firms other than Bet365 will go for some cheap publicity if he does not start and you are likely to get your money back in that instance.
1 point each way Renneti at 14/1 with Betfred and Coral (both 1/4 odds each way 5 places and likely to follow the bandwagon and refund!)