Roy The Boy looks ahead to the Chinese Grand Prix and he thinks the 11/10 about Safety Car being used looks a very good bet.
No Safety needed with this Chinese bet
Bookmakers are always slow in pricing-up the probability of a ‘Safety Car’. Markets such as the next ‘race winner’ always appear in the immediate aftermath of a race conclusion and other markets, such as ‘winning distance’, generally crop up on the Monday before a race weekend.
At this moment in time only Bet365 have a market on the appearance of a safety car in Sunday’s F1 Grand Prix priced-up and they have surely made a mistake in going 11/10 about it being needed.
…and here’s for why: There have been just three safety cars deployed at the Chinese Grand Prix in the past 11 years. It was required in 2016 purely as a result of ‘debris on the circuit’ and its appearance in 2015 was due to a broken down car stranded on track. With just two laps left to race deploying it was an unprecedented decision.
But there are more factors in our favour. There may be three newcomers on the grid (as Antonio Giovinazzi steps in to replace Pascal Wehrlein for a second consecutive race) but there was no hint of this trio causing an accident in Australia a fortnight ago when the ‘no safety car’ bet was a winner at odds against.
Additionally the field size is back down to 20 (between 2010 and 2014 and in 2016 it was either 22 or 24 cars). Fewer cars means fewer cars which can collide or break down in inconvenient places.
All-in-all we believe the percentages should be around 35% in favour of it being needed and, in turn, that means the 11/10 about it not being called into action is a tremendous bet.
NO Safety Car in the Chinese Grand Prix 11/10 Bet365