There have been 20 matches in the 2019 Premier League and seven of them have been draws. That’s a 35 percent ratio and if you take Michael van Gerwen out of the equation (as he is supposed to win every time he goes to the oche – didn’t last week funnily enough) we are talking seven from 16. That is a 43.75 percent ratio.
In short, right now backing every match that does not involve MVG to be a draw at the default price of 10/3 looks to be a cash-cow. So, armed with that knowledge and a lot more stats, here’s what looks best amongst this Thursday’s live Sky Sports action.
Barneveld and Wright would have been a battle of the titans a few years ago but Barney is not the player of old and Wright needs a Timeform double squiggle even at the best of times. If they do things right they can have a point apiece by recording their third draw in the space of five Premier League games. The draw is a standout 19/4 with Sportingbet (best price of 7/2 elsewhere) and is the bet of Round 5.
Gurney and Wade have won four apiece from their eight lifetime starts. They are playing to a similar level of form, so as they cannot be separated – a draw it is at 10/3 available with Betway and select others.
Smith and Cross is not so close. Cross beat Smith 11-7 at the weekend and he is 10-3 up in lifetime head-to-heads. I’d love to recommend the draw but this one looks to be Cross’ game for the taking. He’s 7/5 with most firms.
Suljovic and Price is another I’d like to chalk up as a draw but Price went 20
matches unbeaten during the past fortnight and he’s a man on a mission. He’s 11/8 to win this match but the statistics indicate the even-money about him gaining the most 180’s is a better bet.
MVG and Henderson could be described as a David and Goliath encounter but as MVG’s lost his last two (6-10 to Mervyn King at the weekend) this giant might be slayed for a third consecutive time. Might is a big word and this match is best left alone.