Lonesharkoy previews the Connacht Senior Club Football Championship and cannot see past defending champions Corofin.
Connacht Club SFC
Hot on the heels of opposing one short priced favourite up north, we’re also faced with another long odds on selection in Connacht in the shape of champions Corofin, who stumbled through the first fifty minutes of their Galway county final before cutting loose in the closing stages. Many punters will look at a price of 4/11 and say that they need to be opposed somehow, though finding the best way to do so is not a straightforward process. The simple truth of the matter is that while St Marys and Tourlestrane supporters might bristle at the idea, the Galway champions will reach a Connacht final barring a massive collapse, and if they do get that far and face Mayo opposition at that point (as is expected) they will enjoy home advantage for the decider.
In the event that Castlebar Mitchels successfully negotiate a path to the Connacht final, then 4/11 might be a touch short – but if they trip up on the way, then Corofin would be expected to start at odds of 1/4 , or not far off that mark.
For the first time this decade, St Brigids aren’t part of this discussion but while there will be raw champions in Roscommon, neither Clann na nGael or Padraig Pearses are your typical fairytale rural club that would be expected to collapse on the provincial scene. They each pull from massive catchment areas, have enjoyed tremendous underage success and have poured plenty of resources into their senior teams, with Paul Curran (Dublin) and Shane Curran (Brigids/Roscommon) as their managers. Both are comparatively young sides, but there will be plenty of power in the middle third of the field at Dr Hyde Park this Sunday, and if Breaffy were to prevail, the battle between the O’Shea brothers and the Daly (Pearses) or Shine (Clann) families would be a sight to behold.
Neither is Breaffy beating Castlebar an impossibility. The local derby factor will strip away any of the fear factor that another club might have had to face in a clash with the Mitchels and while Castlebar are deservedly favourites, odds of 4/6 are generally on offer, suggesting a one point handicap which is no more than fair.
The simple truth of the matter is that for those who are into that sort of thing, 4/11 is actually not a bad price about Corofin prevailing – and those inclined towards trading could do a lot worse than take up the offer from Boylesports. If Castlebar are the side lining out against the Galway powerhouses in Tuam Stadium next month, the bet could be closed out without loss. However a slip up by the Mayo front runners to allow Breaffy/Pearses/Clann to sneak in, and odds of 4/1 or more could be available about the outsiders, thus guaranteeing a trading profit.
Of course there is a risk of a collapse against Leitrim or Sligo opposition, but Corofin’s track record is such that the chances of such an occurrence are incredibly low.
3 points win Corofin to win the Connacht Club SFC at 4/11 with Boylesports