Frazzled previews the Ultima Handicap Chase and he is backing the very well handicapped Out Sam while also having an interest in The Young Master.
This contest could potentially revolve around Out Sam. He was a very useful novice hurdler last season, when rated 139, before he was surprisingly sold by Kelvin Hughes and picked for big money by his new owners. He was sent to Warren Greatrex and after a warm up run over hurdles at Carlisle, he was then switched to fences. He showed plenty of encouragement first time at Ascot over too sharp a trip and then won easily next time at Catterick, where he looked to have Major Ivan covered when that rival came down. However his last time out effort stamped him as a horse to follow as he jumped very well and easily came away to beat Milansbar and Activial, despite giving 4lb to the former on ground that was softer than ideal. Milansbar was rated 140 in that contest and has since won a handicap by 8 lengths off a mark of 137. Out Sam gave him 4lb and a 3.5 length beating at Newbury and even if the handicapper at the time did think that Milansbar ran below form and reduced his rating to 137, it is hard to understand how he allocated a mark of 139 to Out Sam.
Based on a strict reading of that race, Out Sam could easily have been rated around the 145-147 mark and off 139 he looks to have outstanding credentials. He is inexperienced, but he jumps well and he could easily be more effective on this better ground. There are not many in this race that have the potential to be much better than their rating and it is not inconceivable that Out Sam could be a high 150s performer next season. Warren Greatrex assumed that handicaps would not be an option after that Newbury success and was clearly expecting a much higher handicap mark. In a time when novice chasers seem to be getting ratings that are higher than they have been in the past, Out Sam sticks out a mile as a horse that has been very leniently treated and is worth a bet at these 8/1 odds.
Those closest in the betting to him do not appeal.
Holywell could well bounce back again at the festival, but he has been running terribly this year.
Kruzhlinin looks handicapped to the hilt after the rise for the last time Kempton win where his jumping did not impress at many fences.
Beg To Differ’s jumping was very moderate the last time he was here and it has been poor on numerous occasions. He will be a serious horse if he jumps like that again and troubles the judge.
Carole's Destrier does make a bit of appeal as he has run well here over too short a trip in the past and his rating of 151 looks pretty fair. However he would have made more appeal if Sausalito Sunrise had stayed in the race and reduced his burden.
The other horse we will have a small interest on (even though Audacious Plan could run a huge race at big odds) is The Young Master. After a brilliant novice season last year, he disappointed behind Don Poli in the RSA last year, but he has winning form at this venue and his campaign this year seems to have been geared around the festival. He has not been ridden as prominently in some of his races, when those tactics worked so well last year and like The Druids Nephew last year, he warmed up for this race with a spin in the Cleeve Hurdle last time. The ground has come right for him and there was plenty of encouragement in his Ascot run last December off a 1lb higher mark. Sam Waley Cohen should get him jumping and he is worth an each way bet as well at 16/1 with Paddy Power and William Hill.
2 points each way Out Sam at 8/1 with BetVictor, Betfair Sports and William Hill
1 point each way The Young Master at 16/1 with William Hill